An updated HACOR score for predicting the failure of noninvasive ventilation: a multicenter prospective observational study

BACKGROUND: Heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (HACOR) have been used to predict noninvasive ventilation (NIV) failure. However, the HACOR score fails to consider baseline data. Here, we aimed to update the HACOR score to take into account baseline data and test its predictive power for NIV failure primarily after 1–2 h of NIV. METHODS: A multicenter prospective observational study was performed in 18 hospitals in China and Turkey. Patients who received NIV because of hypoxemic respiratory failure were enrolled. In Chongqing, China, 1451 patients were enrolled in the training cohort. Outside of Chongqing, another 728 patients were enrolled in the external validation cohort. RESULTS: Before NIV, the presence of pneumonia, cardiogenic pulmonary edema, pulmonary ARDS, immunosuppression, or septic shock and the SOFA score were strongly associated with NIV failure. These six variables as baseline data were added to the original HACOR score. The AUCs for predicting NIV failure were 0.85 (95% CI 0.84–0.87) and 0.78 (0.75–0.81) tested with the updated HACOR score assessed after 1–2 h of NIV in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. A higher AUC was observed when it was tested with the updated HACOR score compared to the original HACOR score in the training cohort (0.85 vs. 0.80, 0.86 vs. 0.81, and 0.85 vs. 0.82 after 1–2, 12, and 24 h of NIV, respectively; all p values < 0.01). Similar results were found in the validation cohort (0.78 vs. 0.71, 0.79 vs. 0.74, and 0.81 vs. 0.76, respectively; all p values < 0.01). When 7, 10.5, and 14 points of the updated HACOR score were used as cutoff values, the probability of NIV failure was 25%, 50%, and 75%, respectively. Among patients with updated HACOR scores of ≤ 7, 7.5–10.5, 11–14, and > 14 after 1–2 h of NIV, the rate of NIV failure was 12.4%, 38.2%, 67.1%, and 83.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The updated HACOR score has high predictive power for NIV failure in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure. It can be used to help in decision-making when NIV is used. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-022-04060-7.