Vaccination, life expectancy, and trust: patterns of COVID-19 and measles vaccination rates around the world

OBJECTIVES: We estimate patterns of covariation between COVID-19 and measles vaccination rates and a set of widely used indicators of human, social, and economic capital across 146 countries. STUDY DESIGN: We conduct exploratory analyses of social patterns that uphold vaccination success for COVID-19 and measles. METHODS: We use publicly available data on COVID vaccination rates and other country-level indicators from Our World in Data, Human Development Report, Corruption Perception Index, and the World Bank to devise bivariate correlations and multiple regression models. RESULTS: About 70% of the variability in COVID-19 vaccination rates in February 2022 can be explained by differences in the Human Development Index (HDI) and, specifically, in life expectancy at birth. Trust in doctors and nurses adds predictive value beyond HDI, clarifying controversial discrepancies between vaccination rates in countries with similar levels of HDI and vaccine availability. Cardiovascular disease deaths, an indicator of general health system effectiveness, and infant measles immunization coverage, an indicator of country-level immunization effectiveness, are also significant, though weaker, predictors of COVID-19 vaccination success. Measles vaccination in 2019 is similarly predicted by HDI and trust in doctors and nurses. CONCLUSIONS: The remaining variability in COVID-19 vaccination success that cannot be pinned down through these sets of metrics points to a considerable scope for collective and individual agency in a time of crisis. The mobilization and coordination in the vaccination campaigns of citizens, medical professionals, scientists, journalists, and politicians, among others, account for at least some of this variability in overcoming vaccine hesitancy and inequity.