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Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study
BACKGROUND: Delayed diagnosis and inaccurate judgment of the severity of the disease may be the principal reasons for the poor prognosis associated with neonatal midgut volvulus. We aimed to develop a nomogram model that timely assesses the risks of intestinal ischemia and necrosis in the neonate wi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9251320/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35795333 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fped.2022.888594 |
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author | Guan, Xisi Wang, Zhe He, Qiuming Lv, Junjian Yu, Jiakang Zhong, Wei |
author_facet | Guan, Xisi Wang, Zhe He, Qiuming Lv, Junjian Yu, Jiakang Zhong, Wei |
author_sort | Guan, Xisi |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Delayed diagnosis and inaccurate judgment of the severity of the disease may be the principal reasons for the poor prognosis associated with neonatal midgut volvulus. We aimed to develop a nomogram model that timely assesses the risks of intestinal ischemia and necrosis in the neonate with midgut volvulus. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data from neonates with midgut volvulus who were admitted to Guangzhou Women and Children’s Medical Center from January 2009 to December 2019. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to obtain independent factors to build a predictive model. The independent factors were used to develop the nomogram model. RESULTS: Heart rate, mean arterial pressure, serum C-reactive protein, serum sodium, serum albumin, and pH levels were independent predictors for intestinal ischemia and necrosis in patients with midgut volvulus. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.985 (95% confidence interval, 0.966–0.999; P < 0.001). The sensitivity was 90.48%, and the specificity was 93.10%. A nomogram model was established using the six independent predictors, with a C-index of 0.859 and a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual intestinal ischemia and necrosis rates according to the internal validation. CONCLUSION: The constructed nomogram model could be a superior tool for predicting intestinal ischemia and necrosis in neonates with midgut volvulus. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9251320 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-92513202022-07-05 Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study Guan, Xisi Wang, Zhe He, Qiuming Lv, Junjian Yu, Jiakang Zhong, Wei Front Pediatr Pediatrics BACKGROUND: Delayed diagnosis and inaccurate judgment of the severity of the disease may be the principal reasons for the poor prognosis associated with neonatal midgut volvulus. We aimed to develop a nomogram model that timely assesses the risks of intestinal ischemia and necrosis in the neonate with midgut volvulus. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data from neonates with midgut volvulus who were admitted to Guangzhou Women and Children’s Medical Center from January 2009 to December 2019. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to obtain independent factors to build a predictive model. The independent factors were used to develop the nomogram model. RESULTS: Heart rate, mean arterial pressure, serum C-reactive protein, serum sodium, serum albumin, and pH levels were independent predictors for intestinal ischemia and necrosis in patients with midgut volvulus. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.985 (95% confidence interval, 0.966–0.999; P < 0.001). The sensitivity was 90.48%, and the specificity was 93.10%. A nomogram model was established using the six independent predictors, with a C-index of 0.859 and a favorable consistency between the predicted and actual intestinal ischemia and necrosis rates according to the internal validation. CONCLUSION: The constructed nomogram model could be a superior tool for predicting intestinal ischemia and necrosis in neonates with midgut volvulus. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-06-20 /pmc/articles/PMC9251320/ /pubmed/35795333 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fped.2022.888594 Text en Copyright © 2022 Guan, Wang, He, Lv, Yu and Zhong. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Pediatrics Guan, Xisi Wang, Zhe He, Qiuming Lv, Junjian Yu, Jiakang Zhong, Wei Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study |
title | Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study |
title_full | Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study |
title_fullStr | Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study |
title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study |
title_short | Nomogram for Estimating the Risks of Intestinal Ischemia and Necrosis in Neonates With Midgut Volvulus: A Retrospective Study |
title_sort | nomogram for estimating the risks of intestinal ischemia and necrosis in neonates with midgut volvulus: a retrospective study |
topic | Pediatrics |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9251320/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35795333 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fped.2022.888594 |
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