A prognostic nomogram for stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by surgical resection

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a large population-based nomogram incorporating the log odds of positive nodes (LODDS) for predicting the overall survival (OS) of stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by surgical resection. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to collect information on patients diagnosed with stage II/III rectal cancer between 2010 and 2015 and treated with NCRT followed by surgical resection. The Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the independent prognostic factors. In this study, LODDS was employed instead of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th N stage to determine lymph node status. Then a nomogram integrating independent prognostic factors was developed to predict the 24-, 36-, and 60-month overall survival. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to validate the nomogram. Furthermore, patients were stratified into three risk groups (high-, middle-, and low-risk) based on the total points obtained from the nomogram. And Kaplan–Meier curves were plotted to compare the OS of the three groups. RESULTS: A total of 3829 patients were included in the study. Race, sex, age, marital status, T stage, tumor grade, tumor size, LODDS, CEA level, and postoperative chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors, based on which the prognostic nomogram was developed. The area under curve values of the nomogram for the 24-, 36-, and 60-month OS in the training cohort were 0.736, 0.720, and 0.688, respectively; and 0.691, 0.696, and 0.694 in the validation cohort, respectively. In both the validation and training cohorts, the calibration curves showed a high degree of consistency between actual and nomogram-predicted survival rates. The Kaplan–Meier curves showed that the three risk groups had significant differences in overall survival (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A large population-based nomogram incorporating LODDS was developed to assist in evaluating the prognosis of stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with NCRT followed by surgical resection. The nomogram showed a satisfactorily discriminative and stable ability to predict the OS for those patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12893-022-01710-z.