A novel 6-metabolite signature for prediction of clinical outcomes in type 2 diabetic patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND: Outcome prediction tools for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are lacking. Here, we developed a machine learning-based metabolite classifier for predicting 1-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) after PCI among patients with T2DM. METHODS: Serum metabolomic profiling was performed in a nested case–control study of 108 matched pairs of patients with T2DM occurring and not occurring MACEs at 1 year after PCI, then the matched pairs were 1:1 assigned into the discovery and internal validation sets. External validation was conducted using targeted metabolite analyses in an independent prospective cohort of 301 patients with T2DM receiving PCI. The function of candidate metabolites was explored in high glucose-cultured human aortic smooth muscle cells (HASMCs). RESULTS: Overall, serum metabolome profiles differed between diabetic patients with and without 1-year MACEs after PCI. Through VSURF, a machine learning approach for feature selection, we identified the 6 most important metabolic predictors, which mainly targeted the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD(+)) metabolism. The 6-metabolite model based on random forest and XGBoost algorithms yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of ≥ 0.90 for predicting MACEs in both discovery and internal validation sets. External validation of the 6-metabolite classifier also showed good accuracy in predicting MACEs (AUC 0.94, 95% CI 0.91–0.97) and target lesion failure (AUC 0.89, 95% CI 0.83–0.95). In vitro, there were significant impacts of altering NAD(+) biosynthesis on bioenergetic profiles, inflammation and proliferation of HASMCs. CONCLUSION: The 6-metabolite model may help for noninvasive prediction of 1-year MACEs following PCI among patients with T2DM. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01561-1.