Higher volume growth rate is associated with development of worrisome features in patients with branch duct-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

BACKGROUND: Branch duct-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) are the most common pancreatic cystic tumours and have a low risk of malignant transformation. Current guidelines only evaluate cyst diameter as an important risk factor but it is not always easy to measure, especially when comparing different methods. On the other side, cyst volume is a new parameter with low inter-observer variability and is highly reproducible over time. AIM: To assess both diameter and volume growth rate of BD-IPMNs and evaluate their correlation with the development of malignant characteristics. METHODS: Computed tomography scans and magnetic resonance imaging exams were retrospectively reviewed. The diameter was measured on three planes, while the volume was calculated by segmentation: The volume of the entire cyst was determined by manually drawing a region of interest along the edge of the neoplasm on each consecutive slice covering the whole lesion; therefore, a three-dimensional volume of interest was finally obtained with the calculated value expressed in cm(3). Changes in size over time were measured. The development of worrisome features was evaluated. RESULTS: We evaluated exams of 98 patients across a 40.5-mo median follow-up time. Ten patients developed worrisome features. Cysts at baseline were significantly larger in patients who developed worrisome features (diameters P = 0.0035, P = 0.00652, P = 0.00424; volume P = 0.00222). Volume growth rate was significantly higher in patients who developed worrisome features (1.12 cm(3)/year vs 0 cm(3)/year, P = 0.0001); diameter growth rate was higher as well, but the difference did not always reach statistical significance. Volume but not diameter growth rate in the first year of follow-up was higher in patients who developed worrisome features (0.46 cm(3)/year vs 0 cm(3)/year, P = 0.00634). CONCLUSION: The measurement of baseline volume and its variation over time is a reliable tool for the follow-up of BD-IPMNs. Volume measurement could be a better tool than diameter measurement to predict the development of worrisome features.