Predicting panel attrition in longitudinal HRQoL surveys during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US

BACKGROUND: Online longitudinal surveys may be subject to potential biases due to sample attrition. This study was designed to identify potential predictors of attrition using a longitudinal panel survey collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Three waves of data were collected using Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk), an online crowd-sourced platform. For each wave, the study sample was collected by referencing a US national representative sample distribution of age, gender, and race, based on US census data. Variables included respondents’ demographics, medical history, socioeconomic status, COVID-19 experience, changes of health behavior, productivity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Results were compared to pre-pandemic US norms. Measures that predicted attrition at different times of the pandemic were identified via logistic regression with stepwise selection. RESULTS: 1467 of 2734 wave 1 respondents participated in wave 2 and, 964 of 2454 wave 2 respondents participated in wave 3. Younger age group, Hispanic origin (p ≤ 0.001) and higher self-rated survey difficulty (p ≤ 0.002) consistently predicted attrition in the following wave. COVID-19 experience, employment, productivity, and limited physical activities were commonly observed variables correlated with attrition with specific measures varying by time periods. From wave 1, mental health conditions, average daily hours worked (p = 0.004), and COVID-19 impact on work productivity (p < 0.001) were associated with a higher attrition rate at wave 2, additional to the aforementioned factors. From wave 2, support of social distancing (p = 0.032), being Republican (p < 0.001), and having just enough money to make ends meet (p = 0.003) were associated with predicted attrition at wave 3. CONCLUSIONS: Attrition in this longitudinal panel survey was not random. Besides commonly identified demographic factors that contribute to panel attrition, COVID-19 presented novel opportunities to address sample biases by correlating attrition with additional behavioral and HRQoL factors in a constantly evolving environment. While age, ethnicity, and survey difficulty consistently predicted attrition, other factors, such as COVID-19 experience, changes of employment, productivity, physical health, mental health, and financial situation impacted panel attrition during the pandemic at various degrees. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12955-022-02015-8.