Injection-induced fault slip assessment in Montney Formation in Western Canada

Hydraulic stimulation to enhance energy extraction from geothermal and unconventional resources is typically accompanied by seismicity because injection changes pore pressures and temperatures, facilitating slippage of fractures and faults. Induced seismicity carries potential risk if events are large enough to damage infrastructure. The uncertainty invariably associated with the state of stress measurements and subsurface geomechanics parameters affects the analysis of fault slip and seismicity induced resulting from hydraulic fracturing. In this study, a probabilistic approach is used to assess the slip tendency of known faults crossing the compartmentalized Montney Formation of western Alberta and northeastern British Columbia. We first divide the formation into four different stress areas based on pore pressure deviations from hydrostatic. In each stress area, geomechanics parameters are expressed as probability distributions using multivariable datasets from borehole petrophysical data to injection-induced focal mechanisms. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to assess the potential slip tendency of local faults. We display the cumulative distribution function of critical pore pressure to cause slip on each fault by using analyses of the parameters of the Mohr–Coulomb shear failure criterion and local tectonic stress state. The results provide useful input for seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation for local faults affected by high-rate fluid injection.