Dual effects of technology change: How does water technological progress affect China’s water consumption?

Water technological progress contributes a lot to water conservation. Most studies have overestimated its contribution by ignoring its scale effect on economic growth, leading to the increase in water consumption. To quantify the trade-off of water technological progress, we combine the macroeconomic model with the environmental model to analyze both the scale effect and the intensity effect of water technological progress. Results show that the intensity effect has reduced China’s water consumption by 612.256 × 10(9) m(3) from 2003 to 2020, while the scale effect increases China’s water consumption by 189.911 × 10(9) m(3). The contribution of technological progress varies among regions in China. The industrial structure effect inhibits water consumption, second to the water-saving effect of water technological progress. The input effect increases water consumption owing to the particularly striking promotion of the effect of capital input. Some policy recommendations are given to mitigate the trade-off of water technological progress and regional disparity.