Machine Learning Based on MRI DWI Radiomics Features for Prognostic Prediction in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

SIMPLE SUMMARY: In the past, radiomics studies of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) were only based on basic MR sequences. Previous studies have shown that radiomics methods based on T2-weighted imaging and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging have been successfully used to improve the prognosis of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive efficacy of radiomics analyses based on readout-segmented echo-planar diffusion-weighted imaging (RESOLVE-DWI) which quantitatively reflects the diffusion motion of water molecules for prognosis evaluation in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Several prognostic radiomics models were established by using diffusion-weighted imaging, apparent diffusion coefficient maps, T2-weighted and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging to predict the risk of recurrence or metastasis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and the predictive effects of different models were compared. The results show that the model based on MRI DWI can successfully predict the prognosis of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and has higher predictive efficiency than the model based on the conventional sequence, which suggests MRI DWI-radiomics can provide a useful and alternative approach for survival estimation. ABSTRACT: Purpose: This study aimed to explore the predictive efficacy of radiomics analyses based on readout-segmented echo-planar diffusion-weighted imaging (RESOLVE-DWI) for prognosis evaluation in nasopharyngeal carcinoma in order to provide further information for clinical decision making and intervention. Methods: A total of 154 patients with untreated NPC confirmed by pathological examination were enrolled, and the pretreatment magnetic resonance image (MRI)—including diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, T2-weighted imaging (T2WI), and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted imaging (CE-T1WI)—was collected. The Random Forest (RF) algorithm selected radiomics features and established the machine-learning models. Five models, namely model 1 (DWI + ADC), model 2 (T2WI + CE-T1WI), model 3 (DWI + ADC + T2WI), model 4 (DWI + ADC + CE-T1WI), and model 5 (DWI + ADC + T2WI + CE-T1WI), were constructed. The average area under the curve (AUC) of the validation set was determined in order to compare the predictive efficacy for prognosis evaluation. Results: After adjusting the parameters, the RF machine learning models based on extracted imaging features from different sequence combinations were obtained. The invalidation sets of model 1 (DWI + ADC) yielded the highest average AUC of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.79–0.81). The average AUCs of the model 2, 3, 4, and 5 invalidation sets were 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71–0.74), 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64–0.68), 0.74 (95% CI: 0.73–0.75), and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74–0.76), respectively. Conclusion: A radiomics model derived from the MRI DWI of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma was generated in order to evaluate the risk of recurrence and metastasis. The model based on MRI DWI can provide an alternative approach for survival estimation, and can reveal more information for clinical decision-making and intervention.