A Multimodal Biomarker Predicts Dissemination of Bronchial Carcinoid

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Evidence of prediction of disease recurrence after curative surgery in bronchial carcinoid is still limited. The aim of this study was to retrospectively investigate a set of markers as potential predictors of dissemination. This study confirmed that adding OTP, CD44, and Ki-67 to the carcinoid classification improved the identification of patients who are at risk for metastatic disease. Patients who did not develop metastasis in follow-up had typical carcinoids with proliferation index <5% and positive OTP and CD44. Atypical carcinoids with proliferation index ≥5% and loss of OTP and/or CD44 were at high risk for distant metastases. Such patients should be screened for metastatic disease at diagnosis and during follow up. ABSTRACT: Background: Curatively treated bronchial carcinoid tumors have a relatively low metastatic potential. Gradation into typical (TC) and atypical carcinoid (AC) is limited in terms of prognostic value, resulting in yearly follow-up of all patients. We examined the additional prognostic value of novel immunohistochemical (IHC) markers to current gradation of carcinoids. Methods: A retrospective single-institution cohort study was performed on 171 patients with pathologically diagnosed bronchial carcinoid (median follow-up: 66 months). The risk of developing distant metastases based on histopathological characteristics (Ki-67, p16, Rb, OTP, CD44, and tumor diameter) was evaluated using multivariate regression analysis and the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: Of 171 patients, seven (4%) had disseminated disease at presentation, and 164 (96%) received curative-intent treatment with either endobronchial treatment (EBT) (n = 61, 36%) or surgery (n = 103, 60%). Among the 164 patients, 13 developed metastases at follow-up of 81 months (IQR 45–162). Univariate analysis showed that Ki-67, mitotic index, OTP, CD44, and tumor diameter were associated with development of distant metastases. Multivariate analysis showed that mitotic count, Ki-67, and OTP were independent risk factors for development of distant metastases. Using a 5% cutoff for Ki-67, Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the risk of distant metastasis development was significantly associated with the number of risk predictors (AC, Ki-67 ≥ 5%, and loss of OTP or CD44) (p < 0.0001). Six out of seven patients (86%) with all three positive risk factors developed distant metastasis. Conclusions: Mitotic count, proliferation index, and OTP IHC were independent predictors of dissemination at follow-up. In addition to the widely used carcinoid classification, a comprehensive analysis of histopathological variables including Ki-67, OTP, and CD44 could assist in the determination of distant metastasis risks of bronchial carcinoids.