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Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive inpatients, which is linked to an increased mortality rate compared to patients without AKI. Here we analysed the difference in kidney blood biomarkers in SARS-CoV-2 positiv...

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Autores principales: Boss, Anna N., Banerjee, Abhirup, Mamalakis, Michail, Ray, Surajit, Swift, Andrew J., Wilkie, Craig, Fanstone, Joseph W., Vorselaars, Bart, Cole, Joby, Weeks, Simonne, Mackenzie, Louise S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9266863/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35806273
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijms23137260
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author Boss, Anna N.
Banerjee, Abhirup
Mamalakis, Michail
Ray, Surajit
Swift, Andrew J.
Wilkie, Craig
Fanstone, Joseph W.
Vorselaars, Bart
Cole, Joby
Weeks, Simonne
Mackenzie, Louise S.
author_facet Boss, Anna N.
Banerjee, Abhirup
Mamalakis, Michail
Ray, Surajit
Swift, Andrew J.
Wilkie, Craig
Fanstone, Joseph W.
Vorselaars, Bart
Cole, Joby
Weeks, Simonne
Mackenzie, Louise S.
author_sort Boss, Anna N.
collection PubMed
description Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive inpatients, which is linked to an increased mortality rate compared to patients without AKI. Here we analysed the difference in kidney blood biomarkers in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients with non-fatal or fatal outcome, in order to develop a mortality prediction model for hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. A retrospective cohort study including data from suspected SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a large National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust hospital in the Yorkshire and Humber regions, United Kingdom, between 1 March 2020 and 30 August 2020. Hospitalised adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with at least one confirmed positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 and blood tests of kidney biomarkers within 36 h of the RT-PCR test were included. The main outcome measure was 90-day in-hospital mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. The logistic regression and random forest (RF) models incorporated six predictors including three routine kidney function tests (sodium, urea; creatinine only in RF), along with age, sex, and ethnicity. The mortality prediction performance of the logistic regression model achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.772 in the test dataset (95% CI: 0.694–0.823), while the RF model attained the AUROC of 0.820 in the same test cohort (95% CI: 0.740–0.870). The resulting validated prediction model is the first to focus on kidney biomarkers specifically on in-hospital mortality over a 90-day period.
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spelling pubmed-92668632022-07-09 Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers Boss, Anna N. Banerjee, Abhirup Mamalakis, Michail Ray, Surajit Swift, Andrew J. Wilkie, Craig Fanstone, Joseph W. Vorselaars, Bart Cole, Joby Weeks, Simonne Mackenzie, Louise S. Int J Mol Sci Article Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive inpatients, which is linked to an increased mortality rate compared to patients without AKI. Here we analysed the difference in kidney blood biomarkers in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients with non-fatal or fatal outcome, in order to develop a mortality prediction model for hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. A retrospective cohort study including data from suspected SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a large National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust hospital in the Yorkshire and Humber regions, United Kingdom, between 1 March 2020 and 30 August 2020. Hospitalised adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with at least one confirmed positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 and blood tests of kidney biomarkers within 36 h of the RT-PCR test were included. The main outcome measure was 90-day in-hospital mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. The logistic regression and random forest (RF) models incorporated six predictors including three routine kidney function tests (sodium, urea; creatinine only in RF), along with age, sex, and ethnicity. The mortality prediction performance of the logistic regression model achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.772 in the test dataset (95% CI: 0.694–0.823), while the RF model attained the AUROC of 0.820 in the same test cohort (95% CI: 0.740–0.870). The resulting validated prediction model is the first to focus on kidney biomarkers specifically on in-hospital mortality over a 90-day period. MDPI 2022-06-30 /pmc/articles/PMC9266863/ /pubmed/35806273 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijms23137260 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Boss, Anna N.
Banerjee, Abhirup
Mamalakis, Michail
Ray, Surajit
Swift, Andrew J.
Wilkie, Craig
Fanstone, Joseph W.
Vorselaars, Bart
Cole, Joby
Weeks, Simonne
Mackenzie, Louise S.
Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers
title Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers
title_full Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers
title_fullStr Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers
title_full_unstemmed Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers
title_short Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers
title_sort development of a mortality prediction model in hospitalised sars-cov-2 positive patients based on routine kidney biomarkers
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9266863/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35806273
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijms23137260
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