Impact of Tohoku-Oki 3.11 M9.0 Earthquake on the Fault Slip Potential of the Active Quaternary Faults in Beijing City: New Insights from In Situ Stress Monitoring Data

In order to ascertain the impact of the Tohoku-Oki 3.11 M9.0 earthquake on the stability of the faults in the Beijing Plain, we investigated the adjustment of the in situ stress field of the Beijing Plain after this earthquake based on in situ stress monitoring data. Then, we analyzed the stability of the five main faults in each adjustment stage of the in situ stress field based on the Mohr–Coulomb failure criteria and Byerlee’s law. Finally, we studied the fault slip potential (FSP) of the main faults under the current in situ stress field. The research results show that (1) after the Tohoku-Oki 3.11 M9.0 earthquake, the tectonic environment of the Beijing Plain area changed rapidly from nearly EW extrusion to nearly EW extension, and this state was maintained until June 2012. After this, it began to gradually adjust to the state present before the earthquake. As of September 2019, the tectonic environment has not recovered to the state present before the earthquake. (2) The ratios of shear stress to normal stress on the fault plane of the fault subsections in the three time periods before the Tohoku-Oki 3.11 M9.0 earthquake, 6 June 2012 and 8 September 2019 were 0.1–0.34, 0.28–0.52, and 0.06–0.29, respectively. It shows that the stress accumulation level of faults in the Beijing Plain area increased in a short time after the earthquake and then gradually decreased. (3) Under the current in situ stress field, most of the subsections of the five main faults have a low FSP (<5%). The areas with high FSP are mainly concentrated in the central and southeastern parts of the Beijing Plain, including the Nankou-Sunhe fault, the northern section of the Xiadian fault, and the areas where the five faults intersect.