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Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility

In the context of infectious disease transmission, high heterogeneity in individual infectiousness indicates that a few index cases can generate large numbers of secondary cases, a phenomenon commonly known as superspreading. The potential of disease superspreading can be characterized by describing...

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Autores principales: Zhao, Shi, Chong, Marc K. C., Ryu, Sukhyun, Guo, Zihao, He, Mu, Chen, Boqiang, Musa, Salihu S., Wang, Jingxuan, Wu, Yushan, He, Daihai, Wang, Maggie H.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9269899/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35759509
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010281
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author Zhao, Shi
Chong, Marc K. C.
Ryu, Sukhyun
Guo, Zihao
He, Mu
Chen, Boqiang
Musa, Salihu S.
Wang, Jingxuan
Wu, Yushan
He, Daihai
Wang, Maggie H.
author_facet Zhao, Shi
Chong, Marc K. C.
Ryu, Sukhyun
Guo, Zihao
He, Mu
Chen, Boqiang
Musa, Salihu S.
Wang, Jingxuan
Wu, Yushan
He, Daihai
Wang, Maggie H.
author_sort Zhao, Shi
collection PubMed
description In the context of infectious disease transmission, high heterogeneity in individual infectiousness indicates that a few index cases can generate large numbers of secondary cases, a phenomenon commonly known as superspreading. The potential of disease superspreading can be characterized by describing the distribution of secondary cases (of each seed case) as a negative binomial (NB) distribution with the dispersion parameter, k. Based on the feature of NB distribution, there must be a proportion of individuals with individual reproduction number of almost 0, which appears restricted and unrealistic. To overcome this limitation, we generalized the compound structure of a Poisson rate and included an additional parameter, and divided the reproduction number into independent and additive fixed and variable components. Then, the secondary cases followed a Delaporte distribution. We demonstrated that the Delaporte distribution was important for understanding the characteristics of disease transmission, which generated new insights distinct from the NB model. By using real-world dataset, the Delaporte distribution provides improvements in describing the distributions of COVID-19 and SARS cases compared to the NB distribution. The model selection yielded increasing statistical power with larger sample sizes as well as conservative type I error in detecting the improvement in fitting with the likelihood ratio (LR) test. Numerical simulation revealed that the control strategy-making process may benefit from monitoring the transmission characteristics under the Delaporte framework. Our findings highlighted that for the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide interventions may control disease transmission on a general scale before recommending the high-risk-specific control strategies.
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spelling pubmed-92698992022-07-09 Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility Zhao, Shi Chong, Marc K. C. Ryu, Sukhyun Guo, Zihao He, Mu Chen, Boqiang Musa, Salihu S. Wang, Jingxuan Wu, Yushan He, Daihai Wang, Maggie H. PLoS Comput Biol Research Article In the context of infectious disease transmission, high heterogeneity in individual infectiousness indicates that a few index cases can generate large numbers of secondary cases, a phenomenon commonly known as superspreading. The potential of disease superspreading can be characterized by describing the distribution of secondary cases (of each seed case) as a negative binomial (NB) distribution with the dispersion parameter, k. Based on the feature of NB distribution, there must be a proportion of individuals with individual reproduction number of almost 0, which appears restricted and unrealistic. To overcome this limitation, we generalized the compound structure of a Poisson rate and included an additional parameter, and divided the reproduction number into independent and additive fixed and variable components. Then, the secondary cases followed a Delaporte distribution. We demonstrated that the Delaporte distribution was important for understanding the characteristics of disease transmission, which generated new insights distinct from the NB model. By using real-world dataset, the Delaporte distribution provides improvements in describing the distributions of COVID-19 and SARS cases compared to the NB distribution. The model selection yielded increasing statistical power with larger sample sizes as well as conservative type I error in detecting the improvement in fitting with the likelihood ratio (LR) test. Numerical simulation revealed that the control strategy-making process may benefit from monitoring the transmission characteristics under the Delaporte framework. Our findings highlighted that for the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide interventions may control disease transmission on a general scale before recommending the high-risk-specific control strategies. Public Library of Science 2022-06-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9269899/ /pubmed/35759509 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010281 Text en © 2022 Zhao et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Zhao, Shi
Chong, Marc K. C.
Ryu, Sukhyun
Guo, Zihao
He, Mu
Chen, Boqiang
Musa, Salihu S.
Wang, Jingxuan
Wu, Yushan
He, Daihai
Wang, Maggie H.
Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility
title Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility
title_full Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility
title_fullStr Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility
title_full_unstemmed Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility
title_short Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility
title_sort characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: decomposition of individual transmissibility
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9269899/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35759509
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010281
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