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An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China

As a common vector-borne disease, dengue fever remains challenging to predict due to large variations in epidemic size across seasons driven by a number of factors including population susceptibility, mosquito density, meteorological conditions, geographical factors, and human mobility. An ensemble...

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Autores principales: Chen, Yuliang, Liu, Tao, Yu, Xiaolin, Zeng, Qinghui, Cai, Zixi, Wu, Haisheng, Zhang, Qingying, Xiao, Jianpeng, Ma, Wenjun, Pei, Sen, Guo, Pi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9269975/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35759513
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218
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author Chen, Yuliang
Liu, Tao
Yu, Xiaolin
Zeng, Qinghui
Cai, Zixi
Wu, Haisheng
Zhang, Qingying
Xiao, Jianpeng
Ma, Wenjun
Pei, Sen
Guo, Pi
author_facet Chen, Yuliang
Liu, Tao
Yu, Xiaolin
Zeng, Qinghui
Cai, Zixi
Wu, Haisheng
Zhang, Qingying
Xiao, Jianpeng
Ma, Wenjun
Pei, Sen
Guo, Pi
author_sort Chen, Yuliang
collection PubMed
description As a common vector-borne disease, dengue fever remains challenging to predict due to large variations in epidemic size across seasons driven by a number of factors including population susceptibility, mosquito density, meteorological conditions, geographical factors, and human mobility. An ensemble forecast system for dengue fever is first proposed that addresses the difficulty of predicting outbreaks with drastically different scales. The ensemble forecast system based on a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type of compartmental model coupled with a data assimilation method called the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF) is constructed to generate real-time forecasts of dengue fever spread dynamics. The model was informed by meteorological and mosquito density information to depict the transmission of dengue virus among human and mosquito populations, and generate predictions. To account for the dramatic variations of outbreak size in different seasons, the effective population size parameter that is sequentially updated to adjust the predicted outbreak scale is introduced into the model. Before optimizing the transmission model, we update the effective population size using the most recent observations and historical records so that the predicted outbreak size is dynamically adjusted. In the retrospective forecast of dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China during the 2011–2017 seasons, the proposed forecast model generates accurate projections of peak timing, peak intensity, and total incidence, outperforming a generalized additive model approach. The ensemble forecast system can be operated in real-time and inform control planning to reduce the burden of dengue fever.
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spelling pubmed-92699752022-07-09 An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China Chen, Yuliang Liu, Tao Yu, Xiaolin Zeng, Qinghui Cai, Zixi Wu, Haisheng Zhang, Qingying Xiao, Jianpeng Ma, Wenjun Pei, Sen Guo, Pi PLoS Comput Biol Research Article As a common vector-borne disease, dengue fever remains challenging to predict due to large variations in epidemic size across seasons driven by a number of factors including population susceptibility, mosquito density, meteorological conditions, geographical factors, and human mobility. An ensemble forecast system for dengue fever is first proposed that addresses the difficulty of predicting outbreaks with drastically different scales. The ensemble forecast system based on a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type of compartmental model coupled with a data assimilation method called the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF) is constructed to generate real-time forecasts of dengue fever spread dynamics. The model was informed by meteorological and mosquito density information to depict the transmission of dengue virus among human and mosquito populations, and generate predictions. To account for the dramatic variations of outbreak size in different seasons, the effective population size parameter that is sequentially updated to adjust the predicted outbreak scale is introduced into the model. Before optimizing the transmission model, we update the effective population size using the most recent observations and historical records so that the predicted outbreak size is dynamically adjusted. In the retrospective forecast of dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China during the 2011–2017 seasons, the proposed forecast model generates accurate projections of peak timing, peak intensity, and total incidence, outperforming a generalized additive model approach. The ensemble forecast system can be operated in real-time and inform control planning to reduce the burden of dengue fever. Public Library of Science 2022-06-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9269975/ /pubmed/35759513 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218 Text en © 2022 Chen et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Chen, Yuliang
Liu, Tao
Yu, Xiaolin
Zeng, Qinghui
Cai, Zixi
Wu, Haisheng
Zhang, Qingying
Xiao, Jianpeng
Ma, Wenjun
Pei, Sen
Guo, Pi
An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China
title An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China
title_full An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China
title_fullStr An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China
title_full_unstemmed An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China
title_short An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China
title_sort ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in china
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9269975/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35759513
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010218
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