Urban mobility patterns and the spatial distribution of infections in Santiago de Chile

The process of a virus spread is inherently spatial. Even though Latin America became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in May 2020, there is still little evidence of the relationship between urban mobility and virus propagation in the region. This paper combines network analysis of mobility patterns in public transportation with a spatial error correction model for Santiago de Chile. Results indicate that a 10% higher number of daily public transportation trips received by an administrative unit in the city was associated with a 1.3% higher number of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Following these findings, we propose an empirical method to identify and classify neighborhoods according to the level and type of risk for COVID-19-like disease propagation, helping policymakers manage mobility during the initial stages of an epidemic outbreak.