Cargando…

A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand

Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and sto...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Briones, Jamaica, Wang, Yi, Prawjaeng, Juthamas, Wee, Hwee Lin, Kairu, Angela, Orangi, Stacey, Barasa, Edwine, Teerawattananon, Yot
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9273740/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35837381
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854
_version_ 1784745143638687744
author Briones, Jamaica
Wang, Yi
Prawjaeng, Juthamas
Wee, Hwee Lin
Kairu, Angela
Orangi, Stacey
Barasa, Edwine
Teerawattananon, Yot
author_facet Briones, Jamaica
Wang, Yi
Prawjaeng, Juthamas
Wee, Hwee Lin
Kairu, Angela
Orangi, Stacey
Barasa, Edwine
Teerawattananon, Yot
author_sort Briones, Jamaica
collection PubMed
description Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models. Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend. Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9273740
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Frontiers Media S.A.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-92737402022-07-13 A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand Briones, Jamaica Wang, Yi Prawjaeng, Juthamas Wee, Hwee Lin Kairu, Angela Orangi, Stacey Barasa, Edwine Teerawattananon, Yot Int J Public Health Public Health Archive Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand. Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models. Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend. Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-06-28 /pmc/articles/PMC9273740/ /pubmed/35837381 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854 Text en Copyright © 2022 Briones, Wang, Prawjaeng, Wee, Kairu, Orangi, Barasa and Teerawattananon. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health Archive
Briones, Jamaica
Wang, Yi
Prawjaeng, Juthamas
Wee, Hwee Lin
Kairu, Angela
Orangi, Stacey
Barasa, Edwine
Teerawattananon, Yot
A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
title A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
title_full A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
title_fullStr A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
title_full_unstemmed A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
title_short A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand
title_sort data-driven analysis of the economic cost of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a cross-country comparison of kenya, singapore, and thailand
topic Public Health Archive
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9273740/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35837381
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1604854
work_keys_str_mv AT brionesjamaica adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT wangyi adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT prawjaengjuthamas adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT weehweelin adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT kairuangela adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT orangistacey adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT barasaedwine adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT teerawattananonyot adatadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT brionesjamaica datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT wangyi datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT prawjaengjuthamas datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT weehweelin datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT kairuangela datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT orangistacey datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT barasaedwine datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand
AT teerawattananonyot datadrivenanalysisoftheeconomiccostofnonpharmaceuticalinterventionsacrosscountrycomparisonofkenyasingaporeandthailand