Predicting Progression, Recurrence, and Survival in Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Single Center Analysis of 174 Patients

INTRODUCTION: The European Neuroendocrine Tumor Society, ENETS, reports variables of prognostic significance in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNET). However, studies have short follow-ups, and the optimal treatment remains controversial. We aimed to determine overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) after conservative treatment, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) after surgery and further to find predictors of aggressive PNET behavior to support treatment decisions. METHODS: 174 patients with PNET treated at Aarhus University Hospital from 2011 to 2021 were included in a retrospective cohort study. Patients were divided into surgically resected (SUR, n=91) and medically or conservatively treated (MED, n=83). Variables were tested in univariate and multivariate survival analysis. Median follow-up time was 3.4 years in the MED group and 4.5 years in the SUR group. RESULTS: The 5-year OS was 95% and 65% for the SUR and MED groups, respectively. The 5-year RFS in the SUR group was 80% whereas the 5-year PFS in the MED group was 41%. Larger tumor size, Ki67 index, tumor grade, and stage were predictive of shorter OS, RFS, and PFS. Further, chromogranin A was a predictor of OS. Larger tumor size was associated with higher stage and grade. Only 1 of 28 patients with stage 1 disease and size ≤2 cm developed progression on a watch-and-wait strategy during a median follow-up of 36 months. CONCLUSION: This study supported the ENETS staging and grading system to be useful to predict OS, PFS, and RFS in PNET. Further, our data support that small, localized, low-grade PNETS can be followed with active surveillance.