Multicenter study of the clinicopathological features and recurrence risk prediction model of early-stage breast cancer with low-positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 expression in China (Chinese Society of Breast Surgery 021)

BACKGROUND: : Breast cancer with low-positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) expression has triggered further refinement of evaluation criteria for HER2 expression. We studied the clinicopathological features of early-stage breast cancer with low-positive HER2 expression in China and analyzed prognostic factors. METHODS: : Clinical and pathological data and prognostic information of patients with early-stage breast cancer with low-positive HER2 expression treated by the member units of the Chinese Society of Breast Surgery and Chinese Society of Surgery of Chinese Medical Association, from January 2015 to December 2016 were collected. The prognostic factors of these patients were analyzed. RESULTS: : Twenty-nine hospitals provided valid cases. From 2015 to 2016, a total of 25,096 cases of early-stage breast cancer were treated, 7642 (30.5%) of which had low-positive HER2 expression and were included in the study. After ineligible cases were excluded, 6486 patients were included in the study. The median follow-up time was 57 months (4–76 months). The disease-free survival rate was 92.1% at 5 years, and the overall survival rate was 97.4% at 5 years. At the follow-up, 506 (7.8%) cases of metastasis and 167 (2.6%) deaths were noted. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that tumor stage, lymphvascular invasion, and the Ki67 index were related to recurrence and metastasis (P < 0.05). The recurrence risk prediction model was established using a machine learning model and showed that the area under the receiving operator characteristic curve was 0.815 (95% confidence interval: 0.750–0.880). CONCLUSIONS: : Early-stage breast cancer patients with low-positive HER2 expression account for 30.5% of all patients. Tumor stage, lymphvascular invasion, and the Ki67 index are factors affecting prognosis. The recurrence prediction model for breast cancer with low-positive HER2 expression based on a machine learning model had a good clinical reference value for predicting the recurrence risk at 5 years. TRIAL REGISTRATION: : ChiCTR.org.cn, ChiCTR2100046766.