The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China

Hepatitis B virus infection is a major global public health concern. This study explored the epidemic characteristics and tendency of hepatitis B in 31 provinces of mainland China, constructed a SARIMA model for prediction, and provided corresponding preventive measures. Monthly hepatitis B case dat...

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Autores principales: Zhao, Daren, Zhang, Huiwu, Cao, Qing, Wang, Zhiyi, Zhang, Ruihua
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2022
Materias:
4400
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9276452/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35687775
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000029317
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author Zhao, Daren
Zhang, Huiwu
Cao, Qing
Wang, Zhiyi
Zhang, Ruihua
author_facet Zhao, Daren
Zhang, Huiwu
Cao, Qing
Wang, Zhiyi
Zhang, Ruihua
author_sort Zhao, Daren
collection PubMed
description Hepatitis B virus infection is a major global public health concern. This study explored the epidemic characteristics and tendency of hepatitis B in 31 provinces of mainland China, constructed a SARIMA model for prediction, and provided corresponding preventive measures. Monthly hepatitis B case data from mainland China from 2013 to 2020 were obtained from the website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Monthly data from 2013 to 2020 were used to build the SARIMA model and data from 2021 were used to test the model. Between 2013 and 2020, 9,177,313 hepatitis B cases were reported in mainland China. SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model and its residual was white noise. It was used to predict the number of hepatitis B cases from January to December 2021, and the predicted values for 2021 were within the 95% confidence interval. This study suggests that the SARIMA model simulated well based on epidemiological trends of hepatitis B in mainland China. The SARIMA model is a feasible tool for monitoring hepatitis B virus infections in mainland China.
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spelling pubmed-92764522022-08-01 The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China Zhao, Daren Zhang, Huiwu Cao, Qing Wang, Zhiyi Zhang, Ruihua Medicine (Baltimore) 4400 Hepatitis B virus infection is a major global public health concern. This study explored the epidemic characteristics and tendency of hepatitis B in 31 provinces of mainland China, constructed a SARIMA model for prediction, and provided corresponding preventive measures. Monthly hepatitis B case data from mainland China from 2013 to 2020 were obtained from the website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Monthly data from 2013 to 2020 were used to build the SARIMA model and data from 2021 were used to test the model. Between 2013 and 2020, 9,177,313 hepatitis B cases were reported in mainland China. SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model and its residual was white noise. It was used to predict the number of hepatitis B cases from January to December 2021, and the predicted values for 2021 were within the 95% confidence interval. This study suggests that the SARIMA model simulated well based on epidemiological trends of hepatitis B in mainland China. The SARIMA model is a feasible tool for monitoring hepatitis B virus infections in mainland China. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2022-06-10 /pmc/articles/PMC9276452/ /pubmed/35687775 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000029317 Text en Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC), where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)
spellingShingle 4400
Zhao, Daren
Zhang, Huiwu
Cao, Qing
Wang, Zhiyi
Zhang, Ruihua
The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China
title The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China
title_full The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China
title_fullStr The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China
title_full_unstemmed The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China
title_short The research of SARIMA model for prediction of hepatitis B in mainland China
title_sort research of sarima model for prediction of hepatitis b in mainland china
topic 4400
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9276452/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35687775
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000029317
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