Cancer and its predictors in Chinese adults with newly diagnosed diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT): a 30-year follow-up of the Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study

BACKGROUND: We aimed to explore if hyperglycaemia and hyperinsulinemia in the diabetes and prediabetes population were associated with increased risk of cancer occurence. METHODS: Overall, 1700 participants with different glycaemic statuses were screened from the 110,660 residents of Da-Qing, China, in 1985. They were followed up to 30 years to access cancer outcomes. RESULTS: Cancer was identified in 15.2% (259/1700) of the participants. The incidence of cancer in the normal glucose tolerance (NGT), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and diabetes groups was 6.06, 6.77, and 7.18 per 1000 person-years, respectively (P = 0.02). In the Fine-Gray model with all cause death as competing risk, compared with the NGT controls, both IGT and diabetes groups demonstrated significantly higher risk of cancer (for the IGT group, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.77, 95% CI 1.38–2.27, P < 0.0001; for the diabetes, aHR = 3.34, 95% CI 2.64–4.22, P < 0.0001). Among the IGT participants, progress to diabetes (aHR = 2.28, 95%CI 1.24–4.20, P = 0.008) and insulin-area under the curve at baseline (for 1 SD increase, aHR = 1.39, P = 0.02) were also associated with the risk of cancer after adjustment of covariables. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperglycaemia in patients with diabetes, hyperinsulinemia, and progression to diabetes in people with IGT is significantly associated with the long-term increased risk of cancer occurrence.