Prospective assessment using (18)F-FDG PET/CT as a novel predictor for early response to PD-1 blockade in non-small-cell lung cancer

Anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) blockade is a standard treatment for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, no appropriate modality exists for monitoring its therapeutic response immediately after initiation. Therefore, we aimed to elucidate the clinical relevance of (18)F-FDG PET/CT versus CT in predicting the response to PD-1 blockade in the early phase. This prospective study included a total of 54 NSCLC patients. (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed at 4 weeks and 9 weeks after PD-1 blockade monotherapy. Maximum standardized uptake values (SUL(max)), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were evaluated. Among all patients, partial metabolic response and progressive metabolic disease after PD-1 blockade were observed in 35.2% and 11.1% on SUL(max), 22.2% and 51.8% on MTV, and 27.8% and 46.3% on TLG, respectively, whereas a partial response (PR) and progressive disease (PD), respectively, based on RECIST v1.1 were recognized in 35.2% and 35.2%, respectively. The predictive probability of PR (MTV: 57.9% vs. 21.1%, p = 0.044; TLG: 63.2% vs. 21.1%, p = 0.020) and PD (MTV: 78.9% vs. 47.3%, p = 0.002; TLG: 73.7% vs. 21.1%, p = 0.007) detected based on RECIST at 4 weeks after PD-1 blockade initiation was significantly higher using MTV or TLG on (18)F-FDG uptake than on CT. Multivariate analysis revealed that metabolic response by MTV or TLG at 4 weeks was an independent factor for response to PD-1 blockade treatment. Metabolic assessment by MTV or TLG was superior to morphological changes on CT for predicting the therapeutic response and survival at 4 weeks after PD-1 blockade.