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Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?

BACKGROUND: Well-functioning competitive markets are key to controlling generic drug prices. This is important since over 90% of all drugs sold in the US are generics. Recently, there have been examples of large price increases in the generic market. METHODS: This paper examines price trajectories f...

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Autores principales: Trujillo, Antonio J., Gutierrez, Jose C., Garcia Morales, Emmanuel E., Socal, Mariana, Ballreich, Jeromie, Anderson, Gerard
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9278003/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35819735
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13561-022-00384-w
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author Trujillo, Antonio J.
Gutierrez, Jose C.
Garcia Morales, Emmanuel E.
Socal, Mariana
Ballreich, Jeromie
Anderson, Gerard
author_facet Trujillo, Antonio J.
Gutierrez, Jose C.
Garcia Morales, Emmanuel E.
Socal, Mariana
Ballreich, Jeromie
Anderson, Gerard
author_sort Trujillo, Antonio J.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Well-functioning competitive markets are key to controlling generic drug prices. This is important since over 90% of all drugs sold in the US are generics. Recently, there have been examples of large price increases in the generic market. METHODS: This paper examines price trajectories for generic drugs using a group-based trajectory modelling approach (GBTM). We fit the model using quarterly price information in the IBM MarketScan claims database for the past decade. RESULTS: We identify three dominant price trajectories for this period: rapid increase trajectories, slow decline and rapid decline. Most generic drugs show a slow or a rapid decline in price trajectories. However, around 17% of all generic drugs show rapid price increase trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: As Congress is exploring an excise tax on drugs whose list price increases faster than the rate of inflation, we discuss what drugs would be most likely to be affected by this law.
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spelling pubmed-92780032022-07-14 Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices? Trujillo, Antonio J. Gutierrez, Jose C. Garcia Morales, Emmanuel E. Socal, Mariana Ballreich, Jeromie Anderson, Gerard Health Econ Rev Research BACKGROUND: Well-functioning competitive markets are key to controlling generic drug prices. This is important since over 90% of all drugs sold in the US are generics. Recently, there have been examples of large price increases in the generic market. METHODS: This paper examines price trajectories for generic drugs using a group-based trajectory modelling approach (GBTM). We fit the model using quarterly price information in the IBM MarketScan claims database for the past decade. RESULTS: We identify three dominant price trajectories for this period: rapid increase trajectories, slow decline and rapid decline. Most generic drugs show a slow or a rapid decline in price trajectories. However, around 17% of all generic drugs show rapid price increase trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: As Congress is exploring an excise tax on drugs whose list price increases faster than the rate of inflation, we discuss what drugs would be most likely to be affected by this law. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-07-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9278003/ /pubmed/35819735 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13561-022-00384-w Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Trujillo, Antonio J.
Gutierrez, Jose C.
Garcia Morales, Emmanuel E.
Socal, Mariana
Ballreich, Jeromie
Anderson, Gerard
Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?
title Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?
title_full Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?
title_fullStr Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?
title_full_unstemmed Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?
title_short Trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?
title_sort trajectories of prices in generic drug markets: what can we infer from looking at trajectories rather than average prices?
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9278003/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35819735
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13561-022-00384-w
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