Branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN): Are cyst volumetry and other novel imaging features able to improve malignancy prediction compared to well-established resection criteria?

OBJECTIVES: Current guidelines base the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) on several well-established resection criteria (RC), including cyst size. However, malignancy may occur in small cysts. Since branch-duct (BD) IPMN are not perfect spheres, volumetric and morphologic analysis might better correlate with mucin production and grade of dysplasia. Nonetheless, their role in malignancy (high-grade dysplasia/invasive cancer) prediction has been poorly investigated. Previous studies evaluating RC also included patients with solid-mass-forming pancreatic cancer (PC), which may affect the RC yield. This study aimed to assess the role of volume, morphology, and other well-established RC in malignancy prediction in patients with BD- and mixed-type IPMN after excluding solid masses. METHODS: Retrospective ethical review-board-approved study of 106 patients (2008–2019) with histopathological diagnosis of BD- and mixed-type IPMN (without solid masses) and preoperative MRI available. Standard imaging and clinical features were collected, and the novel imaging features cyst-volume and elongation value [EV = 1 − (width/length)] calculated on T2-weighted images. Logistic regression analysis was performed. Statistical significance set at two-tails, p < 0.05. RESULTS: Neither volume (odds ratio (OR) = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.99–1.02, p = 0.12) nor EV (OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.02–5.93, p = 0.49) was associated with malignancy. Contrast-enhancing mural nodules (MN), main pancreatic duct (MPD) ≥ 5 mm, and elevated carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 serum levels (> 37 μmol/L) were associated with malignancy (MN OR: 4.32, 95% CI: 1.18–15.76, p = 0.02; MPD ≥ 5 mm OR: 4.2, 95% CI: 1.34–13.1, p = 0.01; CA19-9 OR: 6.72; 95% CI: 1.89 – 23.89, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Volume and elongation value cannot predict malignancy in BD- and/or mixed-type IPMN. Mural nodules, MPD ≥ 5 mm and elevated CA19-9 serum levels are associated with higher malignancy risk even after the exclusion of solid masses. KEY POINTS: • Novel and well-established resection criteria for IPMN have been evaluated after excluding solid masses. • BD-IPMN volume and elongation value cannot predict malignancy. • Main pancreatic duct ≥ 5 mm, mural nodules, and elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels are associated with malignancy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-022-08650-5.