Prediction of Delivery Within 7 Days After Diagnosis of Early Onset Preeclampsia Using Machine-Learning Models

BACKGROUND: Early onset preeclampsia (eoPE) is a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy with endothelial dysfunction manifested before 34 weeks where expectant management is usually attempted. However, the timing of hospitalization, corticosteroids, and delivery remain a challenge. We aim to develop a prediction model using machine-learning tools for the need for delivery within 7 days of diagnosis (model D) and the risk of developing hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, and low platelets (HELLP) syndrome or abruptio placentae (model HA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort of singleton pregnancies with eoPE and attempted expectant management between 2014 and 2020. A Mono-objective Genetic Algorithm based on supervised classification models was implemented to develop D and HA models. Maternal basal characteristics and data gathered during eoPE diagnosis: gestational age, blood pressure, platelets, creatinine, transaminases, angiogenesis biomarkers (soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1, placental growth factor), and ultrasound data were pooled for analysis. The most relevant variables were selected by bio-inspired algorithms. We developed basal models that solely included demographic characteristics of the patient (D1, HA1), and advanced models adding information available at diagnosis of eoPE (D2, HA2). RESULTS: We evaluated 215 eoPE cases and 47.9% required delivery within 7 days. The median time-to-delivery was 8 days. Basal models were better predicted by K-nearest-neighbor in D1, which had a diagnostic precision of 0.68 ± 0.09, with 63.6% sensitivity (Sn), 71.4% specificity (Sp), 70% positive predictive value (PPV), and 65.2% negative predictive value (NPV) using 13 variables and HA1 of 0.77 ± 0.09, 60.4% Sn, 80% Sp, 50% PPV, and 87.9% NPV. Models at diagnosis were better developed by support vector machine (SVM) using 18 variables, where D2’s precision improved to 0.79 ± 0.05 with 77.3% Sn, 80.1% Sp, 81.5% PPV, and 76.2% NPV, and HA2 had a precision of 0.79 ± 0.08 with 66.7% Sn, 82.8% Sp, 51.6% PPV, and 90.3% NPV. CONCLUSION: At the time of diagnosis of eoPE, SVM with evolutionary feature selection process provides good predictive information of the need for delivery within 7 days and development of HELLP/abruptio placentae, using maternal characteristics and markers that can be obtained routinely. This information could be of value when assessing hospitalization and timing of antenatal corticosteroid administration.