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Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches

AIM: To facilitate the development of a COVID-19 predictive model in Croatia by analyzing three different methodological approaches. METHOD: We used the historical data to explore the fit of the extended SEIRD compartmental model, the Heidler function, an exponential approximation in analyzing elect...

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Autores principales: Lojić Kapetanović, Ante, Lukezić, Marina, Pribisalić, Ajka, Poljak, Dragan, Polašek, Ozren
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Croatian Medical Schools 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9284011/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35722698
http://dx.doi.org/10.3325/cmj.2022.63.295
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author Lojić Kapetanović, Ante
Lukezić, Marina
Pribisalić, Ajka
Poljak, Dragan
Polašek, Ozren
author_facet Lojić Kapetanović, Ante
Lukezić, Marina
Pribisalić, Ajka
Poljak, Dragan
Polašek, Ozren
author_sort Lojić Kapetanović, Ante
collection PubMed
description AIM: To facilitate the development of a COVID-19 predictive model in Croatia by analyzing three different methodological approaches. METHOD: We used the historical data to explore the fit of the extended SEIRD compartmental model, the Heidler function, an exponential approximation in analyzing electromagnetic phenomena related to lightning strikes, and the Holt-Winters smoothing (HWS) for short-term epidemic predictions. We also compared various methods for the estimation of R0. RESULTS: The R0 estimates for Croatia varied from 2.09 (95% CI 1.77-2.40) obtained by using an empirical post-hoc method to 2.28 (95% CI 2.27-2.28) when we assumed an exponential outbreak at the very beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia. Although the SEIRD model provided a good fit for the early epidemic stages, it was outperformed by the Heidler function fit. HWS achieved accurate short-term predictions and depended the least on model entry parameters. Neither model performed well across the entire observed period, which was characterized by multiple wave-form events, influenced by the re-opening for the tourist season during the summer, mandatory masks use in closed spaces, and numerous measures introduced in retail stores and public places. However, an extension of the Heidler function achieved the best overall fit. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting future epidemic events remains difficult because modeling relies on the accuracy of the information on population structure and micro-environmental exposures, constant changes of the input parameters, varying societal adherence to anti-epidemic measures, and changes in the biological interactions of the virus and hosts.
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spelling pubmed-92840112022-07-29 Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches Lojić Kapetanović, Ante Lukezić, Marina Pribisalić, Ajka Poljak, Dragan Polašek, Ozren Croat Med J Research Article AIM: To facilitate the development of a COVID-19 predictive model in Croatia by analyzing three different methodological approaches. METHOD: We used the historical data to explore the fit of the extended SEIRD compartmental model, the Heidler function, an exponential approximation in analyzing electromagnetic phenomena related to lightning strikes, and the Holt-Winters smoothing (HWS) for short-term epidemic predictions. We also compared various methods for the estimation of R0. RESULTS: The R0 estimates for Croatia varied from 2.09 (95% CI 1.77-2.40) obtained by using an empirical post-hoc method to 2.28 (95% CI 2.27-2.28) when we assumed an exponential outbreak at the very beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia. Although the SEIRD model provided a good fit for the early epidemic stages, it was outperformed by the Heidler function fit. HWS achieved accurate short-term predictions and depended the least on model entry parameters. Neither model performed well across the entire observed period, which was characterized by multiple wave-form events, influenced by the re-opening for the tourist season during the summer, mandatory masks use in closed spaces, and numerous measures introduced in retail stores and public places. However, an extension of the Heidler function achieved the best overall fit. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting future epidemic events remains difficult because modeling relies on the accuracy of the information on population structure and micro-environmental exposures, constant changes of the input parameters, varying societal adherence to anti-epidemic measures, and changes in the biological interactions of the virus and hosts. Croatian Medical Schools 2022-06 /pmc/articles/PMC9284011/ /pubmed/35722698 http://dx.doi.org/10.3325/cmj.2022.63.295 Text en Copyright © 2022 by the Croatian Medical Journal. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Lojić Kapetanović, Ante
Lukezić, Marina
Pribisalić, Ajka
Poljak, Dragan
Polašek, Ozren
Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
title Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
title_full Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
title_fullStr Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
title_short Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
title_sort modeling the covid-19 epidemic in croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9284011/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35722698
http://dx.doi.org/10.3325/cmj.2022.63.295
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