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Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling

Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of f...

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Autores principales: Michel, Sylvain, Jolivet, Romain, Rollins, Chris, Jara, Jorge, Dal Zilio, Luca
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9285541/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35860496
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093106
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author Michel, Sylvain
Jolivet, Romain
Rollins, Chris
Jara, Jorge
Dal Zilio, Luca
author_facet Michel, Sylvain
Jolivet, Romain
Rollins, Chris
Jara, Jorge
Dal Zilio, Luca
author_sort Michel, Sylvain
collection PubMed
description Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics‐based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing in [Formula: see text] 8.7 earthquakes every T > 200 years.
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spelling pubmed-92855412022-07-18 Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling Michel, Sylvain Jolivet, Romain Rollins, Chris Jara, Jorge Dal Zilio, Luca Geophys Res Lett Research Letter Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics‐based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing in [Formula: see text] 8.7 earthquakes every T > 200 years. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-07-03 2021-07-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9285541/ /pubmed/35860496 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093106 Text en © 2021. The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
spellingShingle Research Letter
Michel, Sylvain
Jolivet, Romain
Rollins, Chris
Jara, Jorge
Dal Zilio, Luca
Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling
title Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling
title_full Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling
title_fullStr Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling
title_full_unstemmed Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling
title_short Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling
title_sort seismogenic potential of the main himalayan thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling
topic Research Letter
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9285541/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35860496
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093106
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