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Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season
A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attrib...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2019
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9285568/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35860503 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001050 |
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author | Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. W. Cannon, A. J. Anslow, F. S. |
author_facet | Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. W. Cannon, A. J. Anslow, F. S. |
author_sort | Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attribution method and a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that the risk factors affecting the event, and the area burned itself, were made substantially greater by anthropogenic climate change. We show over 95% of the probability for the observed maximum temperature anomalies is due to anthropogenic factors, that the event's high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2–4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7–11. This profound influence of climate change on forest fire extremes in British Columbia, which is likely reflected in other regions and expected to intensify in the future, will require increasing attention in forest management, public health, and infrastructure. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9285568 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2019 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-92855682022-07-18 Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. W. Cannon, A. J. Anslow, F. S. Earths Future Research Articles A record 1.2 million ha burned in British Columbia, Canada's extreme wildfire season of 2017. Key factors in this unprecedented event were the extreme warm and dry conditions that prevailed at the time, which are also reflected in extreme fire weather and behavior metrics. Using an event attribution method and a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations, we show that the risk factors affecting the event, and the area burned itself, were made substantially greater by anthropogenic climate change. We show over 95% of the probability for the observed maximum temperature anomalies is due to anthropogenic factors, that the event's high fire weather/behavior metrics were made 2–4 times more likely, and that anthropogenic climate change increased the area burned by a factor of 7–11. This profound influence of climate change on forest fire extremes in British Columbia, which is likely reflected in other regions and expected to intensify in the future, will require increasing attention in forest management, public health, and infrastructure. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2019-01-08 2019-01 /pmc/articles/PMC9285568/ /pubmed/35860503 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001050 Text en ©2018 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. W. Cannon, A. J. Anslow, F. S. Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season |
title | Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season |
title_full | Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season |
title_fullStr | Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season |
title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season |
title_short | Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season |
title_sort | attribution of the influence of human‐induced climate change on an extreme fire season |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9285568/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35860503 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001050 |
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