Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Ensemble Simulations of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) over the eastern Pacific was a record‐breaking tropical cyclone (TC) under a very favorable environment during its rapid intensification (RI) period, which makes it an optimal real case for studying RI dynamics and predictability. In this study, we performed ensemble Kalman filter analyses at Patricia's early development stage using both traditional observations and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field campaign data. It is shown that assimilating the inner‐core TCI observations produces a stronger initial vortex and significantly improves the prediction of RI. Analysis of observation sensitivity experiments shows that the deep‐layer dropsonde observations have high impact on both the primary and secondary circulations for the entire troposphere while the radar observations have the most impact on the primary circulations near aircraft flight level. A wide range of intensification scenarios are obtained through two sets of ensemble forecasts initialized with and without assimilating the TCI data prior to the RI onset. Verification of the ensemble forecasts against the TCI observations during the RI period shows that forecast errors toward later stages can originate from two different error sources at early stages of the vortex structure: One is a timing error from a delayed vortex development such that the TC evolution is the same but shifted in time; the other is due to a totally different storm such that there is no moment in time the simulated storm can obtain a correct TC structure.