The Drivers of the Martian Bow Shock Location: A Statistical Analysis of Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN and Mars Express Observations

The Martian interaction with the solar wind leads to the formation of a bow shock upstream of the planet. The shock dynamics appear complex, due to the combined influence of external and internal drivers. The extreme ultraviolet fluxes and magnetosonic Mach number are known major drivers of the shock location, while the influence of other possible drivers is less constrained or unknown such as crustal magnetic fields, solar wind dynamic pressure, or the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) intensity, and orientation. In this study, we compare the influence of the main drivers of the Martian shock location, based on several methods and published datasets from Mars Express (MEX) and Mars Atmosphere Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) missions. We include here the influence of the crustal fields, extreme ultraviolet fluxes, solar wind dynamic pressure, as well as (for MAVEN, thanks to magnetic field measurements) magnetosonic Mach number and Interplanetary Magnetic Field parameters (intensity and orientation angles). The bias due to the cross‐correlations among the possible drivers is investigated with a partial correlations analysis. Several model selection methods (Akaike Information Criterion and Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator regression) are also used to rank the relative importance of the physical parameters. We conclude that the major drivers of the shock location are extreme ultraviolet fluxes and magnetosonic Mach number, while crustal fields and solar wind dynamic pressure are secondary drivers at a similar level. The IMF orientation also plays a significant role, with larger distances for perpendicular shocks rather than parallel shocks.