Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream

Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate mo...

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Autores principales: Yamagami, Yoko, Watanabe, Masahiro, Mori, Masato, Ono, Jun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9287400/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35840582
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6
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author Yamagami, Yoko
Watanabe, Masahiro
Mori, Masato
Ono, Jun
author_facet Yamagami, Yoko
Watanabe, Masahiro
Mori, Masato
Ono, Jun
author_sort Yamagami, Yoko
collection PubMed
description Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. Here we show that climate model simulations can reproduce the Barents-Kara SIC trend for 1970–2017 when sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf Stream region is constrained by observations. The constrained warming of the Gulf Stream strengthens ocean heat transport to the Barents-Kara Sea that enhances the SIC decline. The linear trends between the SIC and SST are highly correlated in the CMIP6 ensemble, suggesting that the externally forced component of the Gulf Stream SST increase explains up to 56% of the forced Barents-Kara SIC trend. Therefore, future warming of the Gulf Stream can be an essential pacemaker of the SIC decline.
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spelling pubmed-92874002022-07-17 Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream Yamagami, Yoko Watanabe, Masahiro Mori, Masato Ono, Jun Nat Commun Article Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. Here we show that climate model simulations can reproduce the Barents-Kara SIC trend for 1970–2017 when sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf Stream region is constrained by observations. The constrained warming of the Gulf Stream strengthens ocean heat transport to the Barents-Kara Sea that enhances the SIC decline. The linear trends between the SIC and SST are highly correlated in the CMIP6 ensemble, suggesting that the externally forced component of the Gulf Stream SST increase explains up to 56% of the forced Barents-Kara SIC trend. Therefore, future warming of the Gulf Stream can be an essential pacemaker of the SIC decline. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-07-15 /pmc/articles/PMC9287400/ /pubmed/35840582 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Yamagami, Yoko
Watanabe, Masahiro
Mori, Masato
Ono, Jun
Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
title Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
title_full Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
title_fullStr Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
title_full_unstemmed Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
title_short Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream
title_sort barents-kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the gulf stream
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9287400/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35840582
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6
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