A nomogram for predicting three or more axillary lymph node involvement before breast cancer surgery

Based on the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group (ACOSOG)-Z0011, a useful nomogram has been constructed to identify patients who do not require intraoperative frozen sections to evaluate sentinel lymph nodes in the previous study. This study investigated the developed nomogram by ultrasonography (US) and positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) as a modality. In the training set, 89/1030 (8.6%) patients had three or more positive nodes. Larger tumor size, higher grade ultrasonographic ALN classification, and findings suspicious of positive ALN on PET/CT were associated in multivariate analysis. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the nomogram were 0.856 [95% CI 0.815–0.897] in the training set. The AUC in the validation set was 0.866 [95% CI 0.799–0.934]. Application of the nomogram to 1067 patients who met the inclusion criteria of ACOSOG-Z0011 showed that 90 (8.4%) patients had scores above the cut-off and a false-negative result was 37 (3.8%) patients. And the specificity was 93.8%, and the negative predictive value was 96.4%. The upgraded nomogram improved the predictive accuracy, using only US and PET/CT. This nomogram is useful for identifying patients who do not require intraoperative analysis of sentinel lymph nodes and considering candidates for identifying neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The patients consisted of clinical T1-2 and node-negative invasive breast cancer. The training and validation set consisted of 1030 and 781 patients, respectively. A nomogram was constructed by analyzing factors related to three or more axillary lymph node metastases. The patients who matched the ACOSOG-Z0011 criteria were selected and applied to the new nomogram.