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Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()

The problem of optimally allocating a limited supply of vaccine to control a communicable disease has broad applications in public health and has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. This allocation problem is highly complex and nonlinear. Decision makers need a practical, accura...

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Autores principales: Rao, Isabelle J., Brandeau, Margaret L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9288241/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35843382
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2022.108879
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author Rao, Isabelle J.
Brandeau, Margaret L.
author_facet Rao, Isabelle J.
Brandeau, Margaret L.
author_sort Rao, Isabelle J.
collection PubMed
description The problem of optimally allocating a limited supply of vaccine to control a communicable disease has broad applications in public health and has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. This allocation problem is highly complex and nonlinear. Decision makers need a practical, accurate, and interpretable method to guide vaccine allocation. In this paper we develop simple analytical conditions that can guide the allocation of vaccines over time. We consider four objectives: minimize new infections, minimize deaths, minimize life years lost, or minimize quality-adjusted life years lost due to death. We consider an SIR model with interacting population groups. We approximate the model using Taylor series expansions, and develop simple analytical conditions characterizing the optimal solution to the resulting problem for a single time period. We develop a solution approach in which we allocate vaccines using the analytical conditions in each time period based on the state of the epidemic at the start of the time period. We illustrate our method with an example of COVID-19 vaccination, calibrated to epidemic data from New York State. Using numerical simulations, we show that our method achieves near-optimal results over a wide range of vaccination scenarios. Our method provides a practical, intuitive, and accurate tool for decision makers as they allocate limited vaccines over time, and highlights the need for more interpretable models over complicated black box models to aid in decision making.
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spelling pubmed-92882412022-07-18 Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease() Rao, Isabelle J. Brandeau, Margaret L. Math Biosci Original Research Article The problem of optimally allocating a limited supply of vaccine to control a communicable disease has broad applications in public health and has received renewed attention during the COVID-19 pandemic. This allocation problem is highly complex and nonlinear. Decision makers need a practical, accurate, and interpretable method to guide vaccine allocation. In this paper we develop simple analytical conditions that can guide the allocation of vaccines over time. We consider four objectives: minimize new infections, minimize deaths, minimize life years lost, or minimize quality-adjusted life years lost due to death. We consider an SIR model with interacting population groups. We approximate the model using Taylor series expansions, and develop simple analytical conditions characterizing the optimal solution to the resulting problem for a single time period. We develop a solution approach in which we allocate vaccines using the analytical conditions in each time period based on the state of the epidemic at the start of the time period. We illustrate our method with an example of COVID-19 vaccination, calibrated to epidemic data from New York State. Using numerical simulations, we show that our method achieves near-optimal results over a wide range of vaccination scenarios. Our method provides a practical, intuitive, and accurate tool for decision makers as they allocate limited vaccines over time, and highlights the need for more interpretable models over complicated black box models to aid in decision making. Elsevier Inc. 2022-09 2022-07-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9288241/ /pubmed/35843382 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2022.108879 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Rao, Isabelle J.
Brandeau, Margaret L.
Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()
title Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()
title_full Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()
title_fullStr Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()
title_full_unstemmed Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()
title_short Sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()
title_sort sequential allocation of vaccine to control an infectious disease()
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9288241/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35843382
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2022.108879
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