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Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia

Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries, including Indonesia, characterized by high morbidity and wide spread. It is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups, which can have implications for dengue cont...

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Autores principales: Puspita, Juni Wijayanti, Fakhruddin, Muhammad, Nuraini, Nuning, Soewono, Edy
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9294205/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35891623
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.001
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author Puspita, Juni Wijayanti
Fakhruddin, Muhammad
Nuraini, Nuning
Soewono, Edy
author_facet Puspita, Juni Wijayanti
Fakhruddin, Muhammad
Nuraini, Nuning
Soewono, Edy
author_sort Puspita, Juni Wijayanti
collection PubMed
description Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries, including Indonesia, characterized by high morbidity and wide spread. It is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups, which can have implications for dengue control strategies. A time-dependent four − age structure model of dengue transmission was constructed in this study. A vaccination scenario as control strategy was also applied to one of the age groups. Daily incidence data of dengue cases from Santo Borromeus Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, from 2014 to 2016 was used to estimate the infection rate. We used two indicators to identify the changes in dengue transmission intensity for this period in each age group: the annual force of infection (FoI) and the effective reproduction ratio based on a time-dependent transmission rate. The results showed that the yearly FoI of children (age 0–4 years) increased significantly from 2014 to 2015, at 10.08%. Overall, the highest FoI before and after vaccination occurred in youngsters (age 5–14 years), with a FoI of about 6% per year. In addition, based on the daily effective reproduction ratio, it was found that vaccination of youngsters could reduce the number of dengue cases in Bandung city faster than vaccination of children.
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spelling pubmed-92942052022-07-25 Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia Puspita, Juni Wijayanti Fakhruddin, Muhammad Nuraini, Nuning Soewono, Edy Infect Dis Model Original Research Article Dengue virus infection is a leading health problem in many endemic countries, including Indonesia, characterized by high morbidity and wide spread. It is known that the risk factors that influence the transmission intensity vary among different age groups, which can have implications for dengue control strategies. A time-dependent four − age structure model of dengue transmission was constructed in this study. A vaccination scenario as control strategy was also applied to one of the age groups. Daily incidence data of dengue cases from Santo Borromeus Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia, from 2014 to 2016 was used to estimate the infection rate. We used two indicators to identify the changes in dengue transmission intensity for this period in each age group: the annual force of infection (FoI) and the effective reproduction ratio based on a time-dependent transmission rate. The results showed that the yearly FoI of children (age 0–4 years) increased significantly from 2014 to 2015, at 10.08%. Overall, the highest FoI before and after vaccination occurred in youngsters (age 5–14 years), with a FoI of about 6% per year. In addition, based on the daily effective reproduction ratio, it was found that vaccination of youngsters could reduce the number of dengue cases in Bandung city faster than vaccination of children. KeAi Publishing 2022-07-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9294205/ /pubmed/35891623 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.001 Text en © 2022 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Puspita, Juni Wijayanti
Fakhruddin, Muhammad
Nuraini, Nuning
Soewono, Edy
Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia
title Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia
title_full Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia
title_fullStr Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia
title_full_unstemmed Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia
title_short Time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in Bandung City, Indonesia
title_sort time-dependent force of infection and effective reproduction ratio in an age-structure dengue transmission model in bandung city, indonesia
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9294205/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35891623
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.001
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