Trend Analysis and Prediction of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyze the current trends and predict the epidemiologic features of hepatobiliary and pancreatic (HBP) cancers according to the Korea Central Cancer Registry to provide insights into health policy. METHODS: Incidence data from 1999 to 2017 and mortality data from 2002 to 2018 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database and Statistics Korea, respectively. The future incidence rate from 2018 to 2040 and mortality rate from 2019 to 2040 of each HBP cancer were predicted using an age-period-cohort model. All analyses, including incidence and mortality, were stratified by sex. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2017, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of HBP cancers per 100,000 population had changed (liver, 25.8 to 13.5; gallbladder [GB], 2.9 to 2.6; bile ducts, 5.1 to 5.9; ampulla of Vater [AoV], 0.9 to 0.9; and pancreatic, 5.6 to 7.3). The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) per 100,000 population from 2002 to 2018 of each cancer had declined, excluding pancreatic cancer (5.5 to 5.6). The predicted ASIR of pancreatic cancer per 100,000 population from 2018 to 2040 increased (7.5 to 8.2), but that of other cancers decreased. Furthermore, the predicted ASMR per 100,000 population from 2019 to 2040 decreased in all types of cancers: liver (6.5 to 3.2), GB (1.4 to 0.9), bile ducts (4.3 to 2.9), AoV (0.3 to 0.2), and pancreas (5.4 to 4.7). However, in terms of sex, the predicted ASMR of pancreatic cancer per 100,000 population in females increased (3.8 to 4.9). CONCLUSION: The annual incidence and mortality cases of HBP cancers are generally predicted to increase. Especially, pancreatic cancer has an increasing incidence and will be the leading cause of cancer-related death among HBP cancers.