Examining the COVID-19 case growth rate due to visitor vs. local mobility in the United States using machine learning

Travel patterns and mobility affect the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. However, we do not know to what extent local vs. visitor mobility affects the growth in the number of cases. This study evaluates the impact of state-level local vs. visitor mobility in understanding the growth with respect to the number of cases for COVID spread in the United States between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. Two metrics, namely local and visitor transmission risk, were extracted from mobility data to capture the transmission potential of COVID-19 through mobility. A combination of the three factors: the current number of cases, local transmission risk, and the visitor transmission risk, are used to model the future number of cases using various machine learning models. The factors that contribute to better forecast performance are the ones that impact the number of cases. The statistical significance of the forecasts is also evaluated using the Diebold–Mariano test. Finally, the performance of models is compared for three waves across all 50 states. The results show that visitor mobility significantly impacts the case growth by improving the prediction accuracy by 33.78%. We also observe that the impact of visitor mobility is more pronounced during the first peak, i.e., March–June 2020.