Identification and validation of a novel 16-gene prognostic signature for patients with breast cancer

Despite increased early diagnosis and improved treatment in breast cancer (BRCA) patients, prognosis prediction is still a challenging task due to the disease heterogeneity. This study was to identify a novel gene signature that can accurately evaluate BRCA patient survival. The gene expression and clinical data of BRCA patients were collected from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Molecular Taxonomy of BRCA International Consortium (METABRIC) databases. Genes associated with prognosis were determined by Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis. A prognostic 16-gene score was established with linear combination of 16 genes. The prognostic value of the signature was validated in the METABRIC and GSE202203 datasets. Gene expression analysis was performed to investigate the diagnostic values of 16 genes. The 16-gene score was associated with shortened overall survival in BRCA patients independently of clinicopathological characteristics. The signalling pathways of cell cycle, oocyte meiosis, RNA degradation, progesterone mediated oocyte maturation and DNA replication were the top five most enriched pathways in the high 16-gene score group. The 16-gene nomogram incorporating the survival‐related clinical factors showed improved prediction accuracies for 1-year, 3-year and 5‐year survival (area under curve [AUC] = 0.91, 0.79 and 0.77 respectively). MORN3, IGJ, DERL1 exhibited high accuracy in differentiating BRCA tissues from normal breast tissues (AUC > 0.80 for all cases). The 16-gene profile provides novel insights into the identification of BRCA with a high risk of death, which eventually guides treatment decision making.