Large-scale changes in marine and terrestrial environments drive the population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding in Siberia

Migratory animals experience very different environmental conditions at different times of the year, i.e., at the breeding grounds, during migration, and in winter. The long-tailed duck Clangula hyemalis breeds in the Arctic regions of the northern hemisphere and migrates to temperate climate zones, where it winters in marine environments. The breeding success of the long-tailed duck is affected by the abundances of predators and their main prey species, lemmings Lemmus sibiricus and Dicrostonyx torquatus, whose population fluctuation is subject to climate change. In the winter quarters, long-tailed ducks mainly eat the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. We examined how North-west Siberian lemming dynamics, assumed as a proxy for predation pressure, affect long-tailed duck breeding success and how nutrient availability in the Baltic Sea influences long-tailed duck population size via mussel biomass and quality. Evidence suggests that the long-tailed duck population dynamics was predator-driven on the breeding grounds and resource-driven on the wintering grounds. Nutrients from fertilizer runoff from farmland stimulate mussel stocks and quality, supporting high long-tailed duck population sizes. The applied hierarchical analysis combining several trophic levels can be used for evaluating large-scale environmental factors that affect the population dynamics and abundance of migrants from one environment to another.