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Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogen...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9299324/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35802755 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010237 |
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author | Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi Pasetto, Damiano Zanon, Mario Bertuzzo, Enrico Mari, Lorenzo Miccoli, Stefano Casagrandi, Renato Gatto, Marino Rinaldo, Andrea |
author_facet | Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi Pasetto, Damiano Zanon, Mario Bertuzzo, Enrico Mari, Lorenzo Miccoli, Stefano Casagrandi, Renato Gatto, Marino Rinaldo, Andrea |
author_sort | Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi |
collection | PubMed |
description | While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9299324 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-92993242022-07-21 Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi Pasetto, Damiano Zanon, Mario Bertuzzo, Enrico Mari, Lorenzo Miccoli, Stefano Casagrandi, Renato Gatto, Marino Rinaldo, Andrea PLoS Comput Biol Research Article While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales. Public Library of Science 2022-07-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9299324/ /pubmed/35802755 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010237 Text en © 2022 Lemaitre et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi Pasetto, Damiano Zanon, Mario Bertuzzo, Enrico Mari, Lorenzo Miccoli, Stefano Casagrandi, Renato Gatto, Marino Rinaldo, Andrea Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study |
title | Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study |
title_full | Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study |
title_fullStr | Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study |
title_full_unstemmed | Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study |
title_short | Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study |
title_sort | optimal control of the spatial allocation of covid-19 vaccines: italy as a case study |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9299324/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35802755 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010237 |
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