Cargando…

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study

While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogen...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi, Pasetto, Damiano, Zanon, Mario, Bertuzzo, Enrico, Mari, Lorenzo, Miccoli, Stefano, Casagrandi, Renato, Gatto, Marino, Rinaldo, Andrea
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9299324/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35802755
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010237
_version_ 1784750943056691200
author Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi
Pasetto, Damiano
Zanon, Mario
Bertuzzo, Enrico
Mari, Lorenzo
Miccoli, Stefano
Casagrandi, Renato
Gatto, Marino
Rinaldo, Andrea
author_facet Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi
Pasetto, Damiano
Zanon, Mario
Bertuzzo, Enrico
Mari, Lorenzo
Miccoli, Stefano
Casagrandi, Renato
Gatto, Marino
Rinaldo, Andrea
author_sort Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi
collection PubMed
description While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-9299324
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-92993242022-07-21 Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi Pasetto, Damiano Zanon, Mario Bertuzzo, Enrico Mari, Lorenzo Miccoli, Stefano Casagrandi, Renato Gatto, Marino Rinaldo, Andrea PLoS Comput Biol Research Article While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales. Public Library of Science 2022-07-08 /pmc/articles/PMC9299324/ /pubmed/35802755 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010237 Text en © 2022 Lemaitre et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Lemaitre, Joseph Chadi
Pasetto, Damiano
Zanon, Mario
Bertuzzo, Enrico
Mari, Lorenzo
Miccoli, Stefano
Casagrandi, Renato
Gatto, Marino
Rinaldo, Andrea
Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
title Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
title_full Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
title_fullStr Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
title_full_unstemmed Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
title_short Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
title_sort optimal control of the spatial allocation of covid-19 vaccines: italy as a case study
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9299324/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35802755
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010237
work_keys_str_mv AT lemaitrejosephchadi optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT pasettodamiano optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT zanonmario optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT bertuzzoenrico optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT marilorenzo optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT miccolistefano optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT casagrandirenato optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT gattomarino optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy
AT rinaldoandrea optimalcontrolofthespatialallocationofcovid19vaccinesitalyasacasestudy