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The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia
Tick-borne diseases are among the challenges associated with warming climate. Many studies predict, and already note, expansion of ticks’ habitats to the north, bringing previously non-endemic diseases, such as borreliosis and encephalitis, to the new areas. In addition, higher temperatures accelera...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9299338/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35857740 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269846 |
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author | Georgiades, Pantelis Ezhova, Ekaterina Räty, Meri Orlov, Dmitry Kulmala, Markku Lelieveld, Jos Malkhazova, Svetlana Erguler, Kamil Petäjä, Tuukka |
author_facet | Georgiades, Pantelis Ezhova, Ekaterina Räty, Meri Orlov, Dmitry Kulmala, Markku Lelieveld, Jos Malkhazova, Svetlana Erguler, Kamil Petäjä, Tuukka |
author_sort | Georgiades, Pantelis |
collection | PubMed |
description | Tick-borne diseases are among the challenges associated with warming climate. Many studies predict, and already note, expansion of ticks’ habitats to the north, bringing previously non-endemic diseases, such as borreliosis and encephalitis, to the new areas. In addition, higher temperatures accelerate phases of ticks’ development in areas where ticks have established populations. Earlier works have shown that meteorological parameters, such as temperature and humidity influence ticks’ survival and define their areas of habitat. Here, we study the link between climatic parameters and tick-related hospital visits as well as borreliosis incidence rates focusing on European Russia. We have used yearly incidence rates of borreliosis spanning a period of 20 years (1997-2016) and weekly tick-related hospital visits spanning two years (2018-2019). We identify regions in Russia characterized by similar dynamics of incidence rates and dominating tick species. For each cluster, we find a set of climatic parameters that are significantly correlated with the incidence rates, though a linear regression approach using exclusively climatic parameters to incidence prediction was less than 50% effective. On a weekly timescale, we find correlations of different climatic parameters with hospital visits. Finally, we trained two long short-term memory neural network models to project the tick-related hospital visits until the end of the century, under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, and present our findings in the evolution of the tick season length for different regions in Russia. Our results show that the regions with an expected increase in both tick season length and borreliosis incidence rates are located in the southern forested areas of European Russia. Oppositely, our projections suggest no prolongation of the tick season length in the northern areas with already established tick population. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9299338 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-92993382022-07-21 The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia Georgiades, Pantelis Ezhova, Ekaterina Räty, Meri Orlov, Dmitry Kulmala, Markku Lelieveld, Jos Malkhazova, Svetlana Erguler, Kamil Petäjä, Tuukka PLoS One Research Article Tick-borne diseases are among the challenges associated with warming climate. Many studies predict, and already note, expansion of ticks’ habitats to the north, bringing previously non-endemic diseases, such as borreliosis and encephalitis, to the new areas. In addition, higher temperatures accelerate phases of ticks’ development in areas where ticks have established populations. Earlier works have shown that meteorological parameters, such as temperature and humidity influence ticks’ survival and define their areas of habitat. Here, we study the link between climatic parameters and tick-related hospital visits as well as borreliosis incidence rates focusing on European Russia. We have used yearly incidence rates of borreliosis spanning a period of 20 years (1997-2016) and weekly tick-related hospital visits spanning two years (2018-2019). We identify regions in Russia characterized by similar dynamics of incidence rates and dominating tick species. For each cluster, we find a set of climatic parameters that are significantly correlated with the incidence rates, though a linear regression approach using exclusively climatic parameters to incidence prediction was less than 50% effective. On a weekly timescale, we find correlations of different climatic parameters with hospital visits. Finally, we trained two long short-term memory neural network models to project the tick-related hospital visits until the end of the century, under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, and present our findings in the evolution of the tick season length for different regions in Russia. Our results show that the regions with an expected increase in both tick season length and borreliosis incidence rates are located in the southern forested areas of European Russia. Oppositely, our projections suggest no prolongation of the tick season length in the northern areas with already established tick population. Public Library of Science 2022-07-20 /pmc/articles/PMC9299338/ /pubmed/35857740 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269846 Text en © 2022 Georgiades et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Georgiades, Pantelis Ezhova, Ekaterina Räty, Meri Orlov, Dmitry Kulmala, Markku Lelieveld, Jos Malkhazova, Svetlana Erguler, Kamil Petäjä, Tuukka The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia |
title | The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia |
title_full | The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia |
title_fullStr | The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia |
title_full_unstemmed | The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia |
title_short | The impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in European Russia |
title_sort | impact of climatic factors on tick-related hospital visits and borreliosis incidence rates in european russia |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9299338/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35857740 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0269846 |
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