Climate sensitivity of seasonal radial growth in young stands of Mexican conifers

Alteration of forest by climate change and human activities modify the growth response of trees to temperature and moisture. Growth trends of young forests with even-aged stands recruited recently when the climate became warmer and drier are not well known. We analyze the radial growth response of young conifer trees (37–63 years old) to climatic parameters and drought stress employing Pearson correlations and the Vaganov-Shashkin Lite (VS-Lite) model. This study uses tree rings of six species of conifer trees (Pinus teocote, Pinus pseudostrobus, Pinus pinceana, Pinus montezumae, Pinus ayacahuite, and Taxodium mucronatum) collected from young forests with diverse growth conditions in northern and central Mexico. Seasonal ring growth and earlywood width (EW) were modeled as a function of temperature and soil moisture using the VS-Lite model. Wet and cool conditions in the previous winter and current spring enhance ring growth and EW production, mainly in sensitive species from dry sites (P. teocote, P. pseudostrobus, P. pinceana, and P. montezumae), whereas the growth of species from mesic sites (P. ayacahuite and T. mucronatum) shows little responsiveness to soil moisture. In P. ayacahuite and T. mucronatum, latewood growth is enhanced by warm summer conditions. The VS-Lite model shows that low soil moisture during April and May constrains growth in the four sensitive species, particularly in P. pinceana, the species dominant in the most xeric sites. Assessing seasonal ring growth and combining its response to climate with process-based growth models could complement xylogenesis data. Such framework should be widely applied, given the predicted warming and its impact on young forests. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00484-022-02312-3.