Has the United States Reached a Plateau in Overdoses Caused by Synthetic Opioids After the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic? Examination of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Data to November 2021

BACKGROUND: Overdoses caused by synthetic mu-opioid receptor (MOR) agonists such as fentanyl are causing increasing mortality in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have complex effects on public health, including opioid use disorders (OUD). It is unclear whether recent increases in mortality caused by synthetic opioids have reached a plateau (i.e., a stable period), after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: This study examined provisional overdose mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for synthetic opioids excluding methadone (code T40.4; monthly data available from 39 States, plus New York City and Washington DC), for June 2019–November 2021. Data were first examined as crude mortality rates. The presence of a maximum plateau was analyzed for the last 4 months of available data. For authorities in which a plateau in mortality was detected, sigmoidal Boltzmann equations were used to model parameters of this phenomenon (e.g., level of the plateau). RESULTS: At the end of the study period, all but one authority (New Hampshire) reported increases in mortality rates for synthetic opioids, compared to the baseline month of June 2019 (range: 111–745% of baseline). A plateau was observed over the last 4 months of the study period (Aug 2021–Nov 2021) in 29 of the authorities. Ten other authorities had not reached a stable plateau at the end of the study period. For the authorities where a plateau was detected, a sigmoidal Boltzmann model revealed a fitted maximum of 262% rise in mortality over the study period, from the baseline month. The midpoint in the rise in mortality was fitted in September 2020. After separation of data into census regions, the highest plateau was observed in the West region, followed by South, Midwest, and Northeast (fitted plateau values were 409, 262, 204, and 149% of baseline, respectively). DISCUSSION: There were increases in overdose mortality due to synthetic opioids across most states, ranging considerably in magnitude. A plateau in overdose mortality was detected at the end of the study period in most of these authorities. The reasons for these plateaus should be explored, in order to develop optimized public health interventions.