Long-term impact of certain coexisting extrahepatic unisystem and multisystem manifestations on trends in incidence of liver cirrhosis in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis C: A nested case-control study

Diabetes mellitus (DM) was found to be more common in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhotic males. However, the association between DM, or other extrahepatic manifestations (EHMs), and liver cirrhosis is still undetermined. We used a large-scale long-term study to analyze the cirrhosis risk of treatment-naïve HCV patients with EHMs as compared to those without. In this retrospective nested case-control study, we identified 11 872 treatment-naïve patients with chronic HCV between 2001 and 2013 from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database and divided them into patients with (cases) and without cirrhosis (controls). All patients were followed up from the index month (exact month of diagnosis) to the end of 2013, death, or study outcome, whichever occurred first. The cases and controls were 1:6 propensity score matched for age, sex, and exact month of diagnosis; finally, 8078 patients (1154 with and 6924 without cirrhosis) were included in the analysis. The presence of coexisting EHMs and a new diagnosis of cirrhosis was analyzed. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and cumulative incidence for cirrhosis were calculated in conditional Cox regression models after propensity score matching. Patients with high-cirrhosis-risk EHMs, such as DM (HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.51–1.96, P < .001), HCD (HR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.27–1.67, P < .007), CKD (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.05–1.38, P < .001), hyperlipidemia (HR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.46–0.60, P < .001), lichen planus (HR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.56–4.72, P < .001), and palpable purpura (HR: 2.67, 95% CI: 2.13–3.35, P < .001) exhibited significantly higher risk of liver cirrhosis than those without. Cumulative incidence (P < .001) of liver cirrhosis by pairwise comparisons of multiple high-cirrhosis-risk EHMs, and that of lichen planus was the highest. Our study provided direct estimates of specific HCV-associated EHM time trends of cirrhosis risk, with an upward trend in incidence. Lichen planus was at the top of the list of single-EHM comparisons, and the maximum combination of certain EHMs was the greatest risk factor across a different array of multi-EHM comparisons for liver cirrhosis development.