CT-Based Radiomics Nomogram Improves Risk Stratification and Prediction of Early Recurrence in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Partial Hepatectomy

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate an intuitive computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics nomogram for the prediction and risk stratification of early recurrence (ER) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after partial hepatectomy. METHODS: A total of 132 HCC patients treated with partial hepatectomy were retrospectively enrolled and assigned to training and test sets. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and gradient boosting decision tree were used to extract quantitative radiomics features from preoperative contrast-enhanced CT images of the HCC patients. The radiomics features with predictive value for ER were used, either alone or in combination with other predictive features, to construct predictive models. The best performing model was then selected to develop an intuitive, simple-to-use nomogram, and its performance in the prediction and risk stratification of ER was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The radiomics model based on the radiomics score (Rad-score) achieved AUCs of 0.870 and 0.890 in the training and test sets, respectively. Among the six predictive models, the combined model based on the Rad-score, Edmondson grade, and tumor size had the highest AUCs of 0.907 in the training set and 0.948 in the test set and was used to develop an intuitive nomogram. Notably, the calibration curve and DCA for the nomogram showed good calibration and clinical application. Moreover, the risk of ER was significantly different between the high- and low-risk groups stratified by the nomogram (p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The CT-based radiomics nomogram developed in this study exhibits outstanding performance for ER prediction and risk stratification. As such, this intuitive nomogram holds promise as a more effective and user-friendly tool in predicting ER for HCC patients after partial hepatectomy.