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Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use
Liberalized state-level recreational cannabis policies in the United States (US) fostered important policy evaluations with a focus on epidemiological parameters such as proportions [e.g., active cannabis use prevalence; cannabis use disorder (CUD) prevalence]. This cannabis policy evaluation projec...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9302774/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35862417 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271720 |
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author | Montgomery, Barrett Wallace Roberts, Meaghan H. Margerison, Claire E. Anthony, James C. |
author_facet | Montgomery, Barrett Wallace Roberts, Meaghan H. Margerison, Claire E. Anthony, James C. |
author_sort | Montgomery, Barrett Wallace |
collection | PubMed |
description | Liberalized state-level recreational cannabis policies in the United States (US) fostered important policy evaluations with a focus on epidemiological parameters such as proportions [e.g., active cannabis use prevalence; cannabis use disorder (CUD) prevalence]. This cannabis policy evaluation project adds novel evidence on a neglected parameter–namely, estimated occurrence of newly incident cannabis use for underage (<21 years) versus older adults. The project’s study populations were specified to yield nationally representative estimates for all 51 major US jurisdictions, with probability sample totals of 819,543 non-institutionalized US civilian residents between 2008 and 2019. Standardized items to measure cannabis onsets are from audio computer-assisted self-interviews. Policy effect estimates are from event study difference-in-difference (DiD) models that allow for causal inference when policy implementation is staggered. The evidence indicates no policy-associated changes in the occurrence of newly incident cannabis onsets for underage persons, but an increased occurrence of newly onset cannabis use among older adults (i.e., >21 years). We offer a tentative conclusion of public health importance: Legalized cannabis retail sales might be followed by the increased occurrence of cannabis onsets for older adults, but not for underage persons who cannot buy cannabis products in a retail outlet. Cannabis policy research does not yet qualify as a mature science. We argue that modeling newly incident cannabis use might be more informative than the modeling of prevalences when evaluating policy effects and provide evidence of the advantages of the event study model over regression methods that seek to adjust for confounding factors. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9302774 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-93027742022-07-22 Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use Montgomery, Barrett Wallace Roberts, Meaghan H. Margerison, Claire E. Anthony, James C. PLoS One Research Article Liberalized state-level recreational cannabis policies in the United States (US) fostered important policy evaluations with a focus on epidemiological parameters such as proportions [e.g., active cannabis use prevalence; cannabis use disorder (CUD) prevalence]. This cannabis policy evaluation project adds novel evidence on a neglected parameter–namely, estimated occurrence of newly incident cannabis use for underage (<21 years) versus older adults. The project’s study populations were specified to yield nationally representative estimates for all 51 major US jurisdictions, with probability sample totals of 819,543 non-institutionalized US civilian residents between 2008 and 2019. Standardized items to measure cannabis onsets are from audio computer-assisted self-interviews. Policy effect estimates are from event study difference-in-difference (DiD) models that allow for causal inference when policy implementation is staggered. The evidence indicates no policy-associated changes in the occurrence of newly incident cannabis onsets for underage persons, but an increased occurrence of newly onset cannabis use among older adults (i.e., >21 years). We offer a tentative conclusion of public health importance: Legalized cannabis retail sales might be followed by the increased occurrence of cannabis onsets for older adults, but not for underage persons who cannot buy cannabis products in a retail outlet. Cannabis policy research does not yet qualify as a mature science. We argue that modeling newly incident cannabis use might be more informative than the modeling of prevalences when evaluating policy effects and provide evidence of the advantages of the event study model over regression methods that seek to adjust for confounding factors. Public Library of Science 2022-07-21 /pmc/articles/PMC9302774/ /pubmed/35862417 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271720 Text en © 2022 Montgomery et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Montgomery, Barrett Wallace Roberts, Meaghan H. Margerison, Claire E. Anthony, James C. Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use |
title | Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use |
title_full | Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use |
title_fullStr | Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use |
title_short | Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use |
title_sort | estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9302774/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35862417 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271720 |
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