Cargando…
Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC
Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9302778/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35816487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010599 |
_version_ | 1784751707701379072 |
---|---|
author | Crump, Ronald E. Huang, Ching-I Spencer, Simon E. F. Brown, Paul E. Shampa, Chansy Mwamba Miaka, Erick Rock, Kat S. |
author_facet | Crump, Ronald E. Huang, Ching-I Spencer, Simon E. F. Brown, Paul E. Shampa, Chansy Mwamba Miaka, Erick Rock, Kat S. |
author_sort | Crump, Ronald E. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT. By fitting two model variants—one with, and one without animal transmission—to the human case data from 2000–2016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT. We conclude that there are 24/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However—even in these regions—we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68/158 to 61/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9302778 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-93027782022-07-22 Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC Crump, Ronald E. Huang, Ching-I Spencer, Simon E. F. Brown, Paul E. Shampa, Chansy Mwamba Miaka, Erick Rock, Kat S. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT. By fitting two model variants—one with, and one without animal transmission—to the human case data from 2000–2016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT. We conclude that there are 24/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However—even in these regions—we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68/158 to 61/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts. Public Library of Science 2022-07-11 /pmc/articles/PMC9302778/ /pubmed/35816487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010599 Text en © 2022 Crump et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Crump, Ronald E. Huang, Ching-I Spencer, Simon E. F. Brown, Paul E. Shampa, Chansy Mwamba Miaka, Erick Rock, Kat S. Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC |
title | Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC |
title_full | Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC |
title_fullStr | Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC |
title_full_unstemmed | Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC |
title_short | Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC |
title_sort | modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human african trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the drc |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9302778/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35816487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010599 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT crumpronalde modellingtoinfertheroleofanimalsingambiensehumanafricantrypanosomiasistransmissionandeliminationinthedrc AT huangchingi modellingtoinfertheroleofanimalsingambiensehumanafricantrypanosomiasistransmissionandeliminationinthedrc AT spencersimonef modellingtoinfertheroleofanimalsingambiensehumanafricantrypanosomiasistransmissionandeliminationinthedrc AT brownpaule modellingtoinfertheroleofanimalsingambiensehumanafricantrypanosomiasistransmissionandeliminationinthedrc AT shampachansy modellingtoinfertheroleofanimalsingambiensehumanafricantrypanosomiasistransmissionandeliminationinthedrc AT mwambamiakaerick modellingtoinfertheroleofanimalsingambiensehumanafricantrypanosomiasistransmissionandeliminationinthedrc AT rockkats modellingtoinfertheroleofanimalsingambiensehumanafricantrypanosomiasistransmissionandeliminationinthedrc |