Projecting the long‐term societal value of a disease‐modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease in the United States

INTRODUCTION: We estimate societal value of a disease‐modifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment that reduces progression by 30% in early stages. METHODS: Using the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research value flower as framework, we estimate gross societal value, that is, not including treatment cost, from avoided medical and social care costs, productivity and quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALY) gains for patients and caregivers, adjusting for severity of disease, value of financial insurance, and value of insurance for currently unafflicted adults with a Markov model. RESULTS: Predicted societal value from 2021 until 2041 is $2.62 trillion for the overall afflicted US population and $986 billion for the 2021 prevalent cohort or $134,418 per person, with valuation of patients’ QALY gains (63%) and avoided nursing‐home costs (20%) as largest components. Delays in access because of health system capacity constraints could reduce realized value between 52% and 69%. The value of insurance for the unafflicted is $4.52 trillion or $18,399 on average per person. DISCUSSION: With a total of $5.5 trillion, the projected gross societal value of a hypothetical AD treatment is substantial, which may help to put the cost of treatment into perspective.