Waist circumference thresholds predicting incident dysglycaemia and type 2 diabetes in Black African men and women

AIMS: To determine the waist circumference (WC) thresholds for the prediction of incident dysglycaemia and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Black South African (SA) men and women and to compare these to the advocated International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Europid thresholds. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this prospective study, Black SA men (n = 502) and women (n = 527) from the Middle‐aged Sowetan Cohort study who had normal or impaired fasting glucose at baseline (2011‐2015) were followed up until 2017 to 2018. Baseline measurements included anthropometry, blood pressure and fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations. At follow‐up, glucose tolerance was assessed using an oral glucose tolerance test. The Youden index was used to determine the optimal threshold of WC to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D. RESULTS: In men, the optimal WC threshold was 96.8 cm for both dysglycaemia and T2D (sensitivity: 56% and 70%; specificity: 74% and 70%, respectively), and had higher specificity (P < 0.001) than the IDF threshold of 94 cm. In women, the optimal WC threshold for incident dysglycaemia was 91.8 cm (sensitivity 86%, specificity 37%) and for T2D it was 95.8 cm (sensitivity 85%, specificity 45%), which had lower sensitivity, but higher specificity to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D than the IDF threshold of 80 cm (sensitivity: 97% and 100%; specificity: 12% and 11%, respectively)). CONCLUSIONS: We show for the first time using prospective cohort data from Africa that the IDF Europid WC thresholds are not appropriate for an African population, and show that African‐specific WC thresholds perform better than the IDF Europid thresholds to predict incident dysglycaemia and T2D.