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From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach
In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium‐sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, includin...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9309039/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35898420 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9141 |
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author | Cunze, Sarah Klimpel, Sven |
author_facet | Cunze, Sarah Klimpel, Sven |
author_sort | Cunze, Sarah |
collection | PubMed |
description | In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium‐sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence‐absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of C. aureus for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9309039 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-93090392022-07-26 From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach Cunze, Sarah Klimpel, Sven Ecol Evol Research Articles In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium‐sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence‐absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of C. aureus for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-07-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9309039/ /pubmed/35898420 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9141 Text en © 2022 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Cunze, Sarah Klimpel, Sven From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach |
title | From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach |
title_full | From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach |
title_fullStr | From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach |
title_full_unstemmed | From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach |
title_short | From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)—A climatic niche modeling approach |
title_sort | from the balkan towards western europe: range expansion of the golden jackal (canis aureus)—a climatic niche modeling approach |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9309039/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35898420 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9141 |
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