A Retrospective Study from a Single Center in China to Develop a Nomogram to Predict One-Year Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease Who Are Receiving Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients receiving hemodialysis (HD) remains Poor. This retrospective study from a single center in China aimed to develop a nomogram to predict one-year mortality in patients with ESRD on HD. MATERIAL/METHODS: We enrolled 299 ethnic Han Chinese ESRD patients undergoing HD at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University from April 29, 2011 to January 30, 2021. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to select the predictors incorporated in the prediction model to assess the one-year mortality for ESRD patients receiving HD. We used receiver operating characteristic curves, C-index, and calibration curves to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was also verified in different subgroup populations. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 23.30 months. The 299 ESRD patients receiving HD were divided into a death group (n=96) and a survival group (n=203), and the incidence of death was 32.11%. The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease, inflammation and cancer. A nomogram containing age, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, cystatin C, total bilirubin, and hypersensitive c-reactive protein was established. The performance of this nomogram was reflected by its moderate predictive ability, especially for patients who were male, had a primary disease of chronic glomerulonephritis, and had no history of comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated an easy-to-use nomogram for predicting the one-year mortality of ESRD patients undergoing HD.